Efegen's Blog

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Turkish Lira in Coma

Today Turkish Lira lost more than %15. It is only today. Turkish Lira lost %30 in short term. The Turkish economy was giving heavy over heating signals but US sanctions on Turkey and Iran was more than salt and pepper on top. It was Mexican chilly. Look at the daily chart of Turkish Lira. It looks like implosion of an economy.
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Gold

1350 is a major resistance to Gold which it is been defeated by again. I foresee gold rebouncign to 1350 value. Stronger dollar may push gold back to 1000 USD ounce. Until it reaches 1400 USD this recomendation is valid. XAU GOLD Macd is signalling sell as in daily frame.
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Emerging market currencies

Due to strong US economy geopolitical risks like Iran, Turkish elections emerging market currencies pose risk of tumble.
Even tough rising oil prices help Ruble, iit continues to decline.Turkey is heading for elections. And Tukish Lira falls with no ressitanceThai currency is no exception.Just slight resistance.
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XAU GOLD Macd is signalling

1350 is a major resistance to Gold which it is been defeated by again. I foresee gold lowering its value. Stronger dollar may push gold back to 1000 USD ounce. Until it reaches 1400 USD this recomendation is valid. XAU GOLD Macd is signalling sell as in daily frame.
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Watch TRY Central Bank Wednesday

Snap elections and low value of Turkish Lira does not fit into same place. For this reason experts are eyeing Wednesday's cenral bank decision. If the central bank decides to increase interest rate lira may gain %3-%5 aganist Euro And USD.
Lira may withdraw from 4 USD and 5 USD benckmarks. MACD already signallng down.
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EURUSD

Today range of datas regarding EURO and USD will be availible. EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI
EUR Markit Germany Services PMI , EUR Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI ,EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI may all have medium impact.
On top of that USD Markit US Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMI will be presented.
I bullish on the USD, and waiting drop in Gold. But it will be volatile day. Price will move between 1.220 and 1.250. If it breaks this levels we have a short term reve…
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RUBle

Russian sanctions are still looming over palladium and aliminuim markets. If not concrete steps lower tension. I believe Ruble will continue range between 60 and 65 in the short term.
If a the prices get higher than 65 i will enter the market on the long side. Have a nice weekend.
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XAU USD is not rising again

1350 is a major resistance to Gold which it tried to attack several times but defeated by it. Rising interest rates in USD and low commodities are keeping gold bay. Stronger dollar may push gold back to 1000 USD ounce. If it reaches 1400 USd it will strong indication that new trend is formed.
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GBP NZD Volume Divergence

I am working on new indicator On Balance Volume (OBV). I compares volume of bullish and bearish candles. I spotted a divergence signal in GBPNZD. In the below graph eventpugh NZD losing value bear candle volumes significantly. I am looking for major direction reverse in daily of GBP NZD.
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USDCHF will the rally continue?

Is it a correction or new rally? CHF is testing 200 day sma if it is succeeds another trend will be confirmed. Relative strength index is not overbought yet. I noted this as a trading oppurtunity.
Meanwhile i am hopefull regarding my RUB trade and waiting for sanctions from White House as soon as today.
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