drferre's Blog

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Dollar: Bulls in charge

The USD bullish trend has been very impressive. It has been even stronger against the currencies of emerging countries that have suffered a devaluation since when the FOMC began its interest rate hike. In the technical sense I will take advantage of the ZAR and TRY parities trying to buy them in the lows waiting for the resumption of strength of the USD.
When the fundamentals help the technical part tends to get more accurate and this is what I hope for this month of July.
I will keep an eye on …
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Good

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USD and Mr. Powell

From what I've seen in the last two days, Fed Chairman Mr. Powell is trying to calm the markets about the paths that will be taken in relation to US interest rates. There are rumors that the Fed may raise interest rates more than 3 times this year and that is bad for the stock market. Investors migrate to US Treasuries because interest rates are high and it is safer.
He said today that he sees no reason for interest from public bonds to rise to higher levels and that was a bear kick for the USD.…
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2018 It will be the year of great opportunities

January will be an interesting month because we will have great volatility in the markets. A month when big funds begin to position themselves and create pressure. I will align my strategy with take profit and stop better positioned in an attempt to maximize the trades. I will take advantage of the fundamental analysis and the great volatility that occurs in these moments of economic data dissemination. At last it will be a month of great opportunities! A good start for all participants!
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December: Fed's volatility and decision

December is always a very bad month to operate. It is a month when large funds are liquidating their positions, reinforcing others and monetizing their fiscal balances. This leaves the market unstable and unpredictable. It is a shorter month as well, because we will have the Christmas holidays and the end of the year. In this sense, I intend to open positions only on the basis of fundamental analysis, taking advantage of volatility.
Keeping in mind this, I will be watching the USD and the decisi…
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FXRabbit avatar

Welcome back from your vacation and I hope it was a good one! ^_^

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drferre 3 Dez

thank you my friend FXRabbit 

FXRabbit avatar

You are welcome :)

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USD.ZAR - The Perfect Storm!

The technical analysis of this parity is forming a "perfect storm" and I bet my chips that this storm will favor the BEARS, at least in the short time. If the 4-hour bullish trend line is breached and confirmed, we can see parity with first target at 13,860 and then at 13,700. Now if the breakup is up, we will have the break of that flag formed and we will raise to 14,700. Good opportunities are coming! I am aware of these entries!
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USD.TRY - Flag formation

An interesting figure is being formed on the daily chart of the USD.TRY - a flag, we can have an interesting movement in the breaks to one side. We are experiencing a period of intense quarrel between fundamental and technical analysis. There are many fundamentals to bring down the dollar (Trump impeachement?), As well as fundamentals to make the dollar stronger (FED interest). When technical analysis speaks the same language as fundamental it will be the moment of entry and this disruption will…
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AUD pair

And the early Australian / Asian session trades were focused on AUD pairs. I took advantage of the volatility of Australian job data disclosure that was higher than expected and entered into a long in AUD.USD and a short in GBP.AUD and both trades matched the target.
I'm setting my short stops for trades with high volatility and leaving it longer for when I want to catch a trend.
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Volatility in the pair USD.MXN

Volatility in the pair USD.MXN
The USD.MXN pair has been suffering a strong volatility because of the direction that NAFTA members can take with respect to the existence of the bloc. Mr. Trump has been announcing in the media that the existence of the US in this bloc is harmful to Americans and has been gathering efforts to remove his country from this free trade area.
With this the USD.MXN parity comes oscillating strong and bringing good opportunity and also a lot of risk. I decided to make so…
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USD.MXN intra-day correction

We can begin to see a small intra-day correction at the USD.MXN parity up to the first level of fibonacci that was broken (23%). It would be a necessary correction for the pair to rise again. My weekly review is that the pair is still expected to go higher, but we can pick up and pick up some pips in that intra-day drop and buy further down the 23% pullback. The RSI is overbought and that's good.
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Turkish Lira - Good opportunities!

The best opportunity of the beginning of the week who gave us was USD. TRY and EUR.TRY.
The pair started the week opening with a strong GAP due to economic and political news in Turkia. In the case of EUR.TRY we have reached a historic top. The opportunity was to wait to reach a top to sell strong! YES, a high risk trade, but the return would be wonderful too !! Now we must wait for new opportunities!
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