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AUD/CAD will "edge" higher towards 2014

deliriou5 Posted 3 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 1.0190, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/CAD #Support And Resistance #Technical Analysis Cot #Monthly Range Analysis #Ew
Forecasting currency price movements 2 months out is always challenging - I have decided to apply some techniques to narrow the range of the currency movement and then decide on a direction.
(1) Narrow the range of currency movement
As per the chart below, I have identified the range over the next 2 months to be from 0.9534 - 1.0234 (700 pip range). This is based on the historical analysis of 12 years of Nov and Dec ranges for the AUD/CAD which identified two interesting points:
[list][/list]…
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Initiate short position: USD/CHF with target at 0.8750

deliriou5 Posted 2 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.8750, Date: 2nd of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF #Volatility #USD/CHF #Quantitative

The USD/CHF has been sending confusing signals over the last year - setting and re-setting weekly ranges (brown lines in chart above).
Having first identified a bearish divergence from Nov-12 to Jan-13, the USD/CHF traded 2x1 (time x price) creating a bearish zigzag pattern.
This pattern is setting up a nice downward trajectory. Having broken 0.9059, we will expect the USD/CHF to trade lower to 0.8250.
The last piece of the puzzle is to identify the strength of intra-day volatility. For it to b…
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deliriou5 7 Oct.

We saw higher than average volatility over the course of last week which fuels confidence of the current trade lower to 0.8250.

I miscalculated the impacts of the government shutdown on NFP results on Friday but with the fiscal cliff looming, the technical analysis seems to hold wait for at least the next few weeks.

Continue to have confidence in the 0.8750 target by early December.

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deliriou5 19 Oct.

Government shutdown "resolve" and Janet as the Fed chief has introduced volatility in the USDX. I still believe there is further downside for the USDX which would support EUR longs as well as CHF sell positions.

A down-swing is forming at the moment so a possible double bounce might be in order before going lower towards my target of 0.8750.

Still 5-6 weeks more to go so a quick move down now would possibly impact my Dec target.

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deliriou5 29 Oct.

A very weak double re-test of support before it broke below 0.9000. The re-test towards the end of October is according to plan and with increased volatility following the FOMC, we could see the USD/CHF go lower towards 0.8750; at least that is what I still expect given the current volatility bands.

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GBP/CAD : Future Back - further upside expected

deliriou5 Posted 2 Sep. as Analysis on GBP/CAD, Target: 1.6799, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/CAD #Trend Analysis #Market Structure
In this analysis, I will cover three things:
  • The current landscape of the GBP/CAD ("today")
  • The market dynamics impacting GBP/CAD 3 years ago ("yesterday")
  • The "yesterday" to "today" story
Finally, I will address how the next 2 months will differ from today and conclude with an expected rate of 1.6799 for the GBP/CAD on the 1st of November 2013.The current landscape of the GBP/CAD ("today")GBP/CAD is currently trading above the weekly range but within the monthly range. With the daily support line a…
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deliriou5 7 Oct.

The analysis is still valid although I was expecting the retracement at 1.68 to be at a slower rate, allowing for an 121.8 extension of the move to 1.69+.

Factoring a 38.2% retracement to 1.66 from that point, we should see the price hover around the 1.68 mark towards the end of October, in line with expectations.

Higher GBP volatility will put into question this analysis.

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deliriou5 19 Oct.

With roughly 2 trading weeks to go - the trade direction is still tracking well. Low weekly volatility supports a 200 pip range on either side of the current price at c.1.66 (1.64 to 1.68).

I am currently still favouring the GBP over the CAD so a 1.68 trajectory seems likely.

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deliriou5 29 Oct.

If Nov 1 was prior to Wednesday, the trajectory to 1.68 would be almost perfect ...but with FOMC on Wednesday and the CAD GDP on Thursday, I would need to rather fortunate if the prices hover around the current range.

It seems unlikely but I will still maintain long GBP/CAD trades despite the implied increase in volatility in the next 2 days.

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