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Bullish USD/ZAR Forecast

TheAnalyst Posted 20 Aug. as Analysis on USD/ZAR, Target: 15.2565, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Forecast #USD/ZAR
Looking at the monthly chart we are going for a bullish prediction for October. The pair broke through a channel and the MACD has turned positive.
Worrying signs for a bullish prediction include the timing and the MACD indicator. The timing is that the broken channel happened on the news about Turkey and the diving Lira. On top of that we don’t have a solid confirmation since the monthly close is in a couple of weeks. As for the MACD indicator it has turned at a level where it could easily turn…
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USD/JPY Limited Bullish

TheAnalyst Posted 15 Sep. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 113.19, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Us Dollar
The pair just weeks ago had a strong technical bearish move, with the pair moving below a key retest 50% fibonacci level as seen in monthly chart 1.
Monthly Chart 1.
As of September 15 the charts have changed enough to point to a prolonged bullish move. Assuming the pair will act more or less the same with any North Korea threat developments and nothing too good or bad unexpected developments from the FED meeting next week, then the pair is poised to move upwards, but with limited upside.
As see…
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TheAnalyst 4 Oct.

After a high at 113.28 the pair seems to have formed support at 112.38, the level where it corrected during the early US session. Moving forward the next major resistance apart from the previous high at 113.28 is 113.66 and 113.77.

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Bullish Movement After August

TheAnalyst Posted 15 Aug. as Analysis on USD/ZAR, Target: 13.81, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Dollar #USD/ZAR
Based on the monthly and weekly chart we believe the pair won't retry the lows at the 12.40 price level, but will instead push through resistance at the previous weekly high at around 13.60.
Selling pressure is expected for August and the bullish move to happen sometime in September perhaps prompted by bond-buying program-related news and other signals from the FED. Lots of uncertainty remains and will remain for the rest of 2017 though, mainly political-related.
Nevertheless, based on technical…
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TheAnalyst 27 Sep.

After struggling for several days to surpass the 13.30 level and with downward pressure steady the pair managed to break through the previous daily highs and currently stands at 13.53. Within the day the next level that the USD/ZAR is likely to reach without too much effort is 13.60 and within the week the 13.72 level. The cap for this week and early next week should be around 14.00 with 13.8 as the first resistance.

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TheAnalyst 28 Sep.

As expected the USD/ZAR reached the 13.60 level yesterday and earlier during the session today reached the next expected level with a high at 13.705 today. There was some selling at this level which resulted in a drop to 13.50, but with US GDP numbers encouraging at the MA just above 13.45, the drop could very well be a correction and see the pair ending the month or beginning the next month at closer to 13.77.

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TheAnalyst 30 Sep.

The correction early during Friday trading stopped and the pair recovered some ground closing at around 13.55. It might try for the highs again and even overshoot at around 13.77 on Monday. Overall, considering the downward pressures the pair faced during most of August the Fed and good US data gave the pair the expected boost and bullish momentum.

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TheAnalyst 2 Oct.

Early in the European session the pair looks poised to retry the highs at around 13.7. Currently standing at 13.64 compared to last week's close at around 13.54 . If there's a break then next immediate target is 13.82, which considering the pair's movements could happen within the day.

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EUR/GBP Limited Action Expected

TheAnalyst Posted 28 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8492, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP has almost filled the French election-related gap. Though overall it looks bearish and usually we'd go with an estimate of trying the lower down channel below 0.83, based on current GBP strength and the expected EUR strength we'll go with a more bullish but limited view seeing the pair going again for the 50% fibonacci level at 0.845 as seen in the daily chart.
Based on the estimation that the pair will remain relatively subdued due to the snap elections in June 7th we'll not go for a hi…
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TheAnalyst 13 May

So far the pair has made an effort toward the pre-gap lows going as far as 0.8383, but the strength of the euro after the US CPI and Retail Sales data on Friday 12, saw the pair rising to 0.84881, close to our target. With more than two weeks left in the month it is difficult to say how the pair will close the month. Nevertheless, we believe the EUR/GBP will make another effort toward the lows, where it will most likely be met with more buying interest. If price action happens like that, then 0.85 still looks like a good price target for the May close.

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EUR/USD Looking for New Highs

TheAnalyst Posted 28 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1025, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD
As seen in the daily chart the EUR/USD is met with some selling above 1.09. There's also a gap of about 200 pips from the Monday open after the French 1st round elections. Barring any major developments in May either on the French elections front or the US--either FED or Trump-related--then the pair will most likely fill the gap at some point, reaching but probably not going below 1.07, which is the 50% fibonacci level.
From then on, judging by this month's price action, strength of European CPI…
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TheAnalyst 15 May

Buying interest for the EUR/USD continues with a lot of strength. After worst-than-expected US Retails Sales and CPI the pair stopped its correction toward the gap and moved back above 1.09. Today, Monday May 15, it continued slowly its upward trend,also supported by weak NY Manufacturing data. It looks likely the pair is poised for new highs at 1.1080, 50 pips above post-French elections highs. At this point it is too early to comment on the profit target for the 1st of June as the gap has not been filled and there is some uncertainty--on our view--behind the Euro's strength.

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EURNOK Failing to Push Through Based on Oil Strength

TheAnalyst Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/NOK, Target: 9.01, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/NOK #Eurnok
On the daily chart the pair seems to be poised for further heights. However we expect that oil prices will manage to move above $50, potentially after an extension of the OPEC output cut agreement. Additionally, the 9.25 level has served as resistance twice now.
A downward move is also supported by the weekly chart technical analysis, where we can see 9.267 being a 50% fibo retracement level of a bigger downward move and the pair still being within the downward channel. Based on the two charts w…
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TheAnalyst 7 Apr.

The pair tested again previous highs but was knocked down again. A spike in crude oil prices after US missiles hit a Syria target gave the pair more downward momentum in early Friday as well. There's still lots of upward pressure and strong support though, so there are still doubts about the pair's immediate movements.

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TheAnalyst 13 Apr.

The pair stopped testing the highs and has moved down this week, close to reaching support at 1.086. The strength seems to be mostly influneced by bullish sentiment in oil prices. 9.01 seems like an extreme target, but with the Saudis pushing for an extension of the output cuts and EUR/NOK's advance since March, a correction at such a level could be possible.

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EURUSD Stops Fighting

TheAnalyst Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0439, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Eurusd #EUR/USD
On the Daily chart we see that the pair is on an upward channel. However, it fell below the 50% Fibo level (below 1.07) at the end of March. Next major support is at 1.06 and if it breaks it then even 1.038 could be in sight.
We could expect a move at 1.06 and below after the FED minutes on Wednesday 5 April or on Friday of the same week after US payrolls news.
The weekly chart offers further confidence in the analysis of the daily chart as it confirms the same levels with just a 30-pip differ…
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TheAnalyst 7 Apr.

The pair struggled all week between 1.069 and 1.065, with continued buying interest even after FED minutes on Wednesday. The next day the pair was knocked down though, based on Draghi comments mentioning no changes to the ECB policy. After dropping below strong 1.0630 support for a few minutes, the EUR/USD spiked back up to new resistance of 1.0660 after Friday lower-than-expected NFPS. Nevertheless, selling interest at that level brought the pair back down below the earlier lows within the hour. In all, the bearish forecast is still looking good with some reservations.

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TheAnalyst 13 Apr.

A Trump boost to the EUR/USD at 1.0670 late Wednesday still looks like the pair is only correcting before at least trying for  the previous lows at around 1.04. Nevertheless, with the ECB on the horizon, everything is possible.

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Risks to the Downside for the EUR/USD

TheAnalyst Posted 15 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.045, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD
Based on the DAILY CHART the pair seems to have formed a bottom at the 1.038 level. Nevertheless, it's caught in a downward channel and with the European political pressure in the next few months and the upbeat FED on US rate hikes, the risks for the EUR/USD pair remain to the downside. Based on the MONTHLY CHART, it's possible for the pair to try for the previous lows at around 1.035 and a reaction at that level to bring the pair about 100 pips higher at 1.045.
DAILY CHART
MONTHLY CHART
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TheAnalyst 23 Feb.

The pair's support at 1.05 is holding strong toward the end of February. The FOMC minutes on Wednsesday Feb 22, only pushed the pair higher and a correction is on the horizon for the immediate future. Whether the pair will continue pushing down the downward channel and try for new lows at 1.04 will mostly depend on whether it will manage to break and stay above 1.07 in March.

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TheAnalyst 14 Mar.

The pair touched the 1.07 level after the ECB and payrolls but closed down, hovering at the 1.06 level just before the FED on March 15. A drop to 1.05 is expected after the FED and perhaps a move lower toward 1.04 till the end of March.

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TheAnalyst 19 Mar.

The pair not only did not drop after the Fed raised rates but climbed above 1.07, toward 1.08. Although we still believe a drop is in the horizon, price action has been confusing enough to warrant significant doubt. Overall--despite a carved bottom at 1.04 on the monthly chart-- we expect another try for the lows at 1.04 and even a fake move toward 1.03 and then a more slow, but continuous upward move for the pair.

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TheAnalyst 30 Mar.

The pair couldn't move above 1.09 on the strength of the US health bill not passing last week and it already started a decline, 200 pips this week. There doesn't seem to be much room left for a correction despite the drop, so we're probably looking for the pair to test support first at 1.06 and then at 1.05 in early April.

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Currency Wars

TheAnalyst Posted 14 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0915, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD
Although it's particularly challenging to predict the pair's long-term movements, we believe there's a good chance the pair has seen its lows and will oscillate between 1.07 and 1.13 with 1.05 and 1.15 as the extremes. Although, the FED is not expected by the markets to go with an increase rate in March, data for both employment and inflation (according to the FED's projections anyway) are looking good so we think there's a higher chance for a big positive movement for the dollar coming in this …
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EUR/USD

TheAnalyst Posted 15 Jan. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1060, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD
As wrong as it feels right now we’ll assume this 3-day EUR/USD strength, and the channel break that comes with it, is fake--similar to the fake efforts of CABLE at 1.55 before its big drop. In that case the pair will try the downward channel support at around 1.062, which is where the pair was hovering at before the 400-pip move upwards on the ECB’s Draghi speech happened. Although a move below that level is possible we’ll assume the pair will move back up inside the channel as seen in the WEEKL…
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TheAnalyst 22 Jan.

The pair moved down on the Draghi speech about 150 pips, but 1.08 seems to offer considerable support to the pair. Generally, the EUR/USD is struggling so much that it makes it tricky to predict even the smallest movements. Despite the existence of the downward channel it seems the pair favors the long side. A break above 1.0920 will probably see the pair move to 1.1050. Otherwise, on the downside 1.0650 is still a valid target. Though SHORT on the technicals, at this point LONG is looking like a good option when trading the pair.

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TheAnalyst 3 Feb.

The pair finally moved above 1.0985 today after all US news data was released, reaching a high of 1.1080. Without the downward move first and the pair at current levels so early in the month our March prediction seems on the low side, but EUR/USD movements have been slow and erratic the past few weeks so we have to wait and see how the charts will develop the next couple of weeks for a better understanding of the pair's future.

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