The long time perspective proves that after a big retracement the pair likes to oscillate near 1.0 and rebounce down after it goes over the parity level. I do not see any reasons for that lack of trend to change much until december. My forecast is that the pair will range between 0.99 and 1.01 level for the whole month. Fundamentally, no rate hike on USD is to happen on november and judging from FOMC speeches even december hike is now questionable (although I believe the market will price in 50…
arjaq's Blog
Looking for some technicals to support the fundamentals
There is no discussion for me that ZARJPY fundamentally goes up on a longer time scope. I'll just mention 2 most important points that are evaluated in my previous article. ZAR interest rate is to be kept high in the following years, compared to low/negative JPY rates that are to be kept for years. Also mining commodities, that are fundamentally supportive for ZAR, are likely to be retracing up, especially as they are better for keeping long-term than for example JPY or CHF (you are charged for …
USDJPY in my opinion
That might not be a common view, yet I believe USDJPY is back to the uptrend now. Support line of 100 seems to be really well defended and each time after it is attacked USDJPY makes higher highs. I believe the pair will go up to about 106 level as it is close to fibo 261,8%.
On the longer time period (here shown on daily, though 4h chart shows it even better) it looks like downtrend is going to reverse. After trying to break the descending downtrend line retracements tend to be really strong…