Recent development on the trade war front did not lead to a more serious risk-off episode. Apart from the Chinese stock market, which was hit quite hard yesterday, risk assets recovered at least part of the lost ground. USD/JPY bottomed near 109.5 and is now back above 110. 200 DMA is the immediate resistance on the way to 110.5 and 111.
al_dcdemo's Blog
Risk off as trade wars continue
Trump is said to have ordered 200B worth of tariffs on Chinese goods. That's an escalation from previous 50B - 100B clips. Risk markets understandably don't like it, and have sold off. Yen is the preferred currency so far today. USD/JPY fell below 200 DMA and 110, to as low as 109.70. We'll see if we get any follow-through as European markets open.
Yen the most wanted currency this week
U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against the commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit with reduced volatility.
USD/CHF nearing 0.95 level
Yesterday's bout of risk-off in markets didn't impact USD/CHF as much as USD/JPY. The former continues to move in tandem with EUR/USD, especially since U.S. dollar weakness has been driving most pairs recently.
USD/CHF broke the six-month consolidation to the downside and fell below 2011 - 2016 trendline in the process. No sign of SNB as yet but EUR/CHF is well off the floor anyway. Area near 0.95 looks like a strong support with 0.97 the initial resistance.
USD/CHF broke the six-month consolidation to the downside and fell below 2011 - 2016 trendline in the process. No sign of SNB as yet but EUR/CHF is well off the floor anyway. Area near 0.95 looks like a strong support with 0.97 the initial resistance.
Yen breaks 110
USD/JPY broke below 110 in yesterday's risk-off trading. Stocks fell but later recovered, gold soared, but the main driver remains 10-year UST yield, which closed below 2.30% for the first time since November. Oil continues to recover amid geopolitical uncertainty.
The pair extended its decline overnight. The pullbacks have been shallow so far. 110 is also 50.0% retracement of the Trump rally. A possible target is 1.0850 - 1.09 (Channel support, 200 DMA). Area around 110 should now act as a resi…
The pair extended its decline overnight. The pullbacks have been shallow so far. 110 is also 50.0% retracement of the Trump rally. A possible target is 1.0850 - 1.09 (Channel support, 200 DMA). Area around 110 should now act as a resi…
Swissie pulls back
Swissie staged a massive pullback yesterday, worth about 135 pips with a daily range of 170 pips. Position squaring at quarter-end and before FOMC meeting and U.S. election were all cited as factors for the risk-off move.
The pair broke and closed below 50, 100 and 200 DMA and stalled ahead of 0.9725. It made a marginal new low overnight before a weak rally. 0.9750 - 0.98 looks like a good sell zone. 0.97 is the initial support.
The pair broke and closed below 50, 100 and 200 DMA and stalled ahead of 0.9725. It made a marginal new low overnight before a weak rally. 0.9750 - 0.98 looks like a good sell zone. 0.97 is the initial support.
Loonie still in a range
After falling in five consecutive days, from 1.31 last Tuesday to 1.2825 on Monday, USD/CAD snapped more than half of the decline yesterday.
Nearly 5% fall in oil amid more general risk-off environment saw the pair rising back above 1.30. That puts 1.32 back into view and possibly 1.35 on a successful breakout.
Nearly 5% fall in oil amid more general risk-off environment saw the pair rising back above 1.30. That puts 1.32 back into view and possibly 1.35 on a successful breakout.
Traders buying yen, franc and dollar into the weekend
We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY.
Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did the oil while the gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into …
Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did the oil while the gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into …
AUD/USD to start the year with gains
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 61.8% retrac…
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 61.8% retrac…
AUD/USD looks bullish while still consolidating
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 61.8% retrac…
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 61.8% retrac…