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Kiwi uptrend to remain intact

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7225, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Strong Support #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA and recently also above 100 week SMA whil…
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al_dcdemo 14 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Kiwi remains well bid as we head into the FOMC decision later today. Unless they deliver a dovish or an extremely hawkish surprise, I think that after the decision technicals will come back into focus. This is also supported by a lack of market moving economic data from New Zealand this week. The pair established a firm foothold above 50 DMA, which I see as the current bull/bear line in sand. Below that, 200 DMA is the first in a series of strong levels all the way down to 0.6950. October high (0.7265) is the initial target before 0.73 and November high (0.74).

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al_dcdemo 17 Dec.

UPDATE 6: The reaction after the Wednesday's FOMC decision was telling. The jump in bond yields and the surge in the dollar showed that the markets were priced for a more gradual tightening path than implied by the latest dot plot. Yellen's endorsement of the dot plot was another contributing factor. Even though it may seem that the dollar moved too far too fast, the rally looks very strong and I think we haven't seen the top yet. With this kind of momentum it is possible that the usual year-end thin holiday liquidity will mean more volatility rather than ranges.

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al_dcdemo 22 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Better than expected New Zealand GDP for Q3 didn't have much of an impact as Q2 was revised lower by an equal amount. U.S./New Zealand bond spreads have been falling since Q3 which has lead Kiwi to adjust lower. The pair broke below the 2015 - 2016 channel a couple of days ago but stalled near 0.69. 50.0% retracement of the 2015 - 2016 upswing is the next target but a pullback to the big figure at 0.70 or 200 DMA is not excluded.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Liquidity and volatility both fell ahead of the holiday season. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the pound and commodity currencies, weakened against the yen, and remained unchanged against the euro and the franc. If the past week was of some example, the week ahead should be even more quiet. But I wouldn't bet on it because I think some of the recent moves have further to run and many will not be patient enough to wait for the New Year to get on board of them. Year-end position-squaring coupled with low liquidity will produce a couple of moves in any case.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: The final week of the year was a pretty calm one if we exclude sharp spikes in euro and franc on Friday - already thin early Asian session liquidity was further diluted due to holidays and a large-sized order took out weaker hands. The dollar ended the week mostly lower, in part also due to bulls booking profit at year-end. Many countries are observing a holiday on January 2nd but I'm sure not everyone will wait until the 3rd to place their first trade. Market themes remain firmly in place and that could mean a volatile start to the new year.

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Kiwi to continue trending up

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Oct. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7325, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #Confluence #NZD/USD #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Balanced Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA and recently also above 100 week SMA whil…
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al_dcdemo 10 Nov.

UPDATE 5: The RBNZ cut the official cash rate to a record low of 1.75% from 2.00% yesterday. Governor Wheeler said that it was likely the last rate cut in this cycle but that they stand ready to intervene in the currency market at any time. Kiwi was initially bought but reversed soon thereafter on intervention talk, aligning with the current U.S. dollar trade. The pair broke below 50 and 100 DMA today and is currently recovering from a sub 0.72 dip. Sellers may be waiting closer to 0.7250.

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al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 6: In the second week after the U.S. election, the U.S. dollar rose against all G10 major currencies bar the Canadian dollar, which tends to perform well on the crosses in the strong U.S. dollar environment. The yen was the weakest of the bunch with the antipodean dollars not very far behind. U.S. dollar index blasted through 100 and closed the week on thirteen-year highs. If current market assumptions (big fiscal stimulus, further tightening by the Fed) prove to be correct, this could well have been the start of the second leg of the multi-year U.S. dollar move.

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al_dcdemo 21 Nov.

UPDATE 7: New Zealand dollar was the least volatile currency during the U.S. election day. Part of it was likely due to the fact that the RBNZ held a meeting on the next day. Widely expected rate cut didn't exactly matter as the currency joined others in a sell-off. The pair has so far lost about 400 pips and closed lower in eight consecutive days. It closed last week below the 2015 - 2016 trendline and 200 DMA, which may now act as a resistance. Area between 0.6880 and 0.70 (00's, 38.2% retracement, 50 WMA, 100 WMA) should see some demand.

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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Kiwi dollar took advantage of yesterday's U.S. dollar weakness and bounced smartly after it broke below a confluence of October low, 2015 - 2016 trendline, 200 DMA and 0.70 level. The currency is a top G10 high-yielder and should stay in favour even as U.S. dollar yields gradually rise. The current pullback may find some resistance at the late October lows (0.71) and then near 50 and 100 DMA (0.72). Area between 0.70 and 0.6880 (00's, 38.2% retracement, 50 WMA, 100 WMA, H2 2015 highs) will come into focus, should the downtrend reassert itself.

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al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar appreciated against most of the G8 major currencies in the three weeks after the U.S. election. An exception is the pound which has been completely disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade and remained range-bound. Australian and New Zealand dollars, supported by yield advantage and the former also by rising copper prices, started their corrections a bit earlier. Low-yielders, the euro, the franc and the yen, recouped some of the losses on Friday and earlier today, but the U.S. dollar bulls were quick to buy into the dips. Price action suggests a risk-on week ahead.

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Kiwi may pull back a bit in October

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Sep. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7125, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Dovish Rbnz #Balanced Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA and recently also above 100 week SMA …
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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 5: The U.S. dollar mostly extended its fourth quarter gains against G7 major currencies this week. The exceptions were the Canadian and the Australian dollars while the New Zealand dollar was pulled down by expectations of further easing by the RBNZ. Worries about global growth after much weaker than expected Chinese export data were diluted today by the first positive PPI figure in five years from the #2 economy which could be a sign of better times ahead. The gradual tightening from the Fed that we're seeing should keep risk assets supported.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Major currencies finished the week mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro moved lower after Draghi dispelled speculation of an early tapering of the ECB asset purchases. The franc followed suit. The yen ended the week in the middle of its two-week range. The pound closed marginally higher on short covering. The Canadian dollar tested 1.30 on pretty hawkish statement only to reverse sharply on Poloz's revelation that they considered a rate cut. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain supported by carry traders, though the former sold off after weak labour force data.

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al_dcdemo 22 Oct.

UPDATE 7: The New Zealand dollar remains one of the most wanted G10 major currencies due to its relatively high yield and creditworthiness of the country. The RBNZ is widely expected to cut its official cash rate in November but this appears to have been largely priced in by now. Better than expected inflation data helped to propel the pair to around 0.7250 mid-week before a profit-taking pullback took it back to 0.7150. The interim high coincided with 50 DMA which makes it the first stronger resistance level to watch on the upside. 100 DMA at 0.7175 should not prove to be too big of a hurdle.

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al_dcdemo 28 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Advance version of the U.S. GDP for the third quarter came in at 2.9% (vs. 2.5% expected and 1.4% previous). The dollar jumped after the release but the gains were quickly reversed. Selling has just been intensified after news came out that the FBI reopened Hillary Clinton investigation. European currencies and the yen are benefiting the most but those are also the currencies that fell the most in the past couple of weeks. Looks more like a position squaring ahead of the next week which will feature BOJ, Fed and BOE meetings.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Sharp moves on Friday afternoon were followed by a relatively calm opening on Monday. Major currencies have been mostly unwinding those moves in the first twelve hours of trading. U.S. dollar rose against most of the major currencies with Canadian and Australian dollars notable exceptions. Holidays in some countries over the next few days shouldn't have a great deal of influence on already low participation that we've been witnessing lately. If past summer is of any guide, otherwise "slow" months can be quite volatile if there's enough substance to drive price moves.

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Kiwi to continue to rise despite the dovish RBNZ

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Aug. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7325, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Breakout #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Balanced Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA and recently above 100 week SMA while…
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al_dcdemo 10 Sep.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar made an impressive comeback on Friday. It ended the day higher in every G7 major currency pair. On the week, the dollar closed higher against the Cable, the Loonie and the Aussie. The rally was widely attributed to hawkish comments from a dovish Fed president Rosengren, which hit markets as N.A. session got underway. The comments spooked markets, risk assets in particular, many of which closed near the lows of the day. All this makes a speech from also dovish Fed governor Brainard on Monday even more important.

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al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead is among the most important ones this year. Even though the market discounts little chance of a Fed hike in September, the meeting will shape expectations for whether we'll get one this year at all. Perhaps even more important will be the decision from the BOJ. This bank has been struggling with deflation and upward pressure on the yen for decades - can they finally put end to that? The RBNZ is another central bank that meets this week. No action from them is widely expected, they cut rates in August.

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al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 7: FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at yesterday's meeting. The outcome was widely anticipated though there were still a lot of players expecting an early hike.  It was a "hawkish hold" with the committee sending a strong implicit signal that the second hike is not far away, barring any economic shocks. The dollar fell after the decision and extended its losses in today's European session. It then recouped a big part of the losses in the N.A. session which is consistent with a very real prospect of a rate hike in December.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies ended the first day of the week mixed but mostly higher against the U.S. dollar. The winner was the yen which approached the strong 100 level once again. A convincing break below it could send few ripples through the FX market, particularly via crosses such as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Canadian dollar was the loser of the day, following through on the weakness after Friday's inflation and retail sales reports. Market focus is now turning to the U.S. elections. It's also the last week of the quarter so we may well witness some larger position squaring flows.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar ended the month higher against the pound and the Canadian dollar but it closed lower against the euro, the franc, the yen and the antipodean dollars. It was a great month for range traders while trend followers are still waiting for a real breakout (higher TFs). They may not have to wait for too long. Contracting ranges will sooner or later give way, in one or the other direction. Uncertainty around U.S. presidental election and potential for a December FOMC rate hike should keep the dollar supported in the fourth quarter.

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NZD/USD to hold above 0.70

al_dcdemo Posted 27 July as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7125, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Big Figure Level #Dovish Rbnz #Net Long Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA for the most of the year while 0.70 …
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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: Another subdued weekly opening as thin summer trading continues. The seven major currency pairs traded in 20-30 pip ranges during the Asian session. Data wise, there's a busy week ahead. U.S. will release inflation report and FOMC meeting minutes. U.K. will report inflation, labour market and retail sales data. Australia and New Zealand will publish labour force reports. We'll get the latest readings on Canadian inflation and retail sales. All this points to a little bit more action than implied by the opening.

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al_dcdemo 17 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Many participants positioned for the U.S. dollar strength ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, encouraged by yesterday's hawkish comments by the NY Fed president Dudley. The minutes were less hawkish than expected in that only a few members felt that a rate hike was needed. Majority would like to see some more data before taking that decision. The dollar made its customary round-trip, running stops on both extremes, before returning to pre-release levels. The commodity currencies ended the day lower while the rest of the G7 closed near unchanged on the day.

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al_dcdemo 22 Aug.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar opened the week with a significant gap in its favour. Weekend comments by the Fed's Stanley Fischer were cited as a contributing factor though it all looks like a simple continuation of the last Friday's pullback/reversal. The calendar for the week ahead is relatively light with the main event, a speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen, coming in at the end of the week. At the moment it seems we'll get a bit of a dollar strength ahead of the event as the market discounts rising (albeit still low) odds of a rate hike by the Fed later in 2016.

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al_dcdemo 30 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Last Friday's speech by the Fed Chair Yellen seems to have, at least temporarily, reversed the U.S. dollar weakening trend. Major currencies have been impacted to various degrees. BOJ's Kuroda comments over the weekend about room for further monetary policy easing made the yen the weakest of the currencies followed by the Canadian and the Australian dollars. Cable seems to be the most resilient and is down just marginally on the week, in part probably due to lack of new sellers as implied by record net and gross short positions in FX futures.

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al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 9: Even though the official end of summer doldrums is after the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., we've seen increased participation this week. Last Friday's move after the Fed's Yellen speech sparked some volatility although she offered nothing particularly new. If anything, I think the market was positioned for a less hawkish (maybe even dovish) speech. September rate hike is however back on the table which makes Friday's NFP report a very important one. We'll get ADP Nonfarm Employment Change in a couple of hours  and the reaction to it may be more than usual.

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Loonie moving sideways

al_dcdemo Updated 15 July  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Oil #USD/CAD #Boc #Rising Wedge #D1 Chart #Five Cent Range
Loonie has been contained in a five-cent range between 1.27 and 1.32 since early May, though it has spent most of the time in the inner 1.28 - 1.31 range. The range looks like a rising wedge, which is generally a bearish pattern.
The BOC left policy unchanged on Wednesday while the oil seems to be in a correction mode. That seems to keep the pair in balance for now. Some resistance shall be found near 1.31, 1.33 and 1.35 and support at 1.27 and 1.25.
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NZD/USD may stay supported

al_dcdemo Posted 25 June as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7225, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Brexit #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been mostly contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA for the most of the year while…
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al_dcdemo 19 July

UPDATE 6: Kiwi sold off sharply at the start of the new trading day as the RBNZ proposed tightening lending standards on investment housing. That came after the bank announced an unscheduled economic outlook update to come on July 21th . Both are seen by the market as paving way for a rate cut in August. The pair looks poised to close lower for the fifth consecutive session. It is currently testing strong support band between 0.6975 and 0.7025 which includes lows from June, 50 DMA and 0.70 big figure level. 0.7050 - 0.71 seems like a good near-term sell zone.

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al_dcdemo 29 July

UPDATE 7: Kiwi doesn't look like it wants to give 0.70 away without a fight. Having said that, the rally off of the level doesn't seem very convincing at this point. Expectations of RBNZ rate cut in August are to blame for the weakness. 0.70 level is reinforced by 100 DMA (~0.6935). 2015 - 2016 trendline (wedge pattern bottom) runs near 200 DMA (currently 0.68). If the bank doesn't deliver, the pair could really take off with 0.7250 and 0.75 the first targets.

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al_dcdemo 30 July

UPDATE 8: One could argue that the FOMC missed a perfect window to hike the federal funds rate. Brexit disruption proved to be minuscule, labor market bounced, inflation expectations recovered, data improved recently and stocks are trading at or near all time highs. Advance GDP came in much weaker than expected on Friday but will likely be revised towards 2.5% in the following two revisions. It seems that "gradually and cautiously" means one 0.25% hike per year at the most. That means no hike in September with December a much more probable date.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Currencies staged an impressive reversal against the U.S. dollar last week after a combo of dovish Fed and much weaker than expected Advance GDP report. The yen was the biggest beneficiary as it gained around 400 pips on the week, helped by a lack of stimulus actions from the BOJ. Commodity currencies rallied with the New Zealand dollar a star performer and the Canadian dollar a bit of a laggard. The euro and the franc also rallied strongly with the pound quite behind but still well in the green. Price action points to further losses for the U.S. dollar in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 10: The prediction turned out to be my best for the month of July. The pair did make a new high but the pullback was deeper than expected mostly due to the unscheduled economic outlook update from the RBNZ, most likely a prelude to a rate cut in August. The pair looks poised to end the forecast period about 40 pips from the target which I think is quite good given that the prediction was posted five weeks ago.

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EURo declines overnight

al_dcdemo Updated 23 June  in #Trader's blog #Euro #EUR/USD #Rising Wedge #Daily Support 2 #Stop Run #50 Dma #100 Dma #Monthly Pivot Point #Weekly Support 2
In a bout of overnight USD strength, Euro fell 80 pips, breaking below the three-week rising wedge and the Monday low (1.1290) in the process. After the substantial stop run, it stalled ahead of Daily Support 2 just above 1.1250.
The pair is basically back to the pre-FOMC levels. If it doesn't bounce from here and instead continues to fall through 1.1200 - 1.1250, it may revisit 1.1050 - 1.1120 band (March/April range top, 1.11 level, 50 DMA, Monthly Pivot Point, Weekly Support 2, 100 DMA, 1.105…
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pipx 23 June

Lets hope this picks soon :-)

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al_dcdemo 23 June

It'd be nice! But I wouldn't bet a farm on it. Ok, maybe demo farm :)

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EURo refuses to rally on Greek bailout progress

al_dcdemo Updated 22 June  in #Trader's blog #Euro #EUR/USD #Ascending Triangle #Rising Wedge #Greek Deal #Bailout Talks
Despite the progress being made today in Greek bailout talks, Euro wasn't able to rally much past 1.14. Officials said that the deal is likely to be sealed by the end of the week. I sincerely hope so!
The pair is still contained in a pattern that may be seen as either an ascending triangle or a rising wedge. Whatever the choice, pattern support is seen between 1.1300 and 1.1350 while resistance comes in 1.1400 - 1.1450 band.
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NZD/USD will continue to trade around current levels

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7725, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Breakout #Bullish #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Kiwi #Rising Wedge #Rbnz #Range Bound #Conditionally Dovish Stance
Monthly chart:
In January, the pair has busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 - 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February, March and April were more or less range-bound. Support is now firmly established at 0.7175 with more at 0.70 level and 50.0% retracement (of 2009 to 2011 uptrend) at 0.6868. April candle still signals indecision but is slightly more bullish than previous one in that it closed above pivotal 0.76 level.
Weekly chart:
The pair…
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al_dcdemo 3 May

UPDATE 2: Although there are few data points out from China and Australia that may affect the pair, data from New Zealand (Employment Change q/q and Unemployment Rate, GDT Price Index) and US (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Non-Farm Employment Change) will be the most market moving. 50 day SMA is the first line of defence of the downside, while 0.76 level shall offer initial resistance on upticks.

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al_dcdemo 10 May

UPDATE 3: Since RBNZ changed its stance to conditionally dovish last week, the pair was mostly offered. It was no different this week, although the decline was slower. Weaker than expected employment report added to worries and many are now expecting at least one rate cut by the end of the year. Weekly candle was slightly bearish but the pair still remains in upward sloping three month consolidation.

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al_dcdemo 11 May

UPDATE 4: From New Zealand in the week ahead, we will get RBNZ Financial Stability Report on Tuesday and shortly after that a speech from RBNZ Governor Wheeler. On Thursday, Q1 Retail Sales will give the latest update on the economy. (Core) Retail Sales, PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from US will be watched closely to provide further clues about potential Q2 recovery. There's risk that the pair breaks lower and strong support may not come in until closer to 0.72.

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al_dcdemo 17 May

UPDATE 5: It looked like the week would be a losing one as the pair fell nearly 150 pips from last Friday's closing levels on Monday. However, strong support at 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend stalled the decline and the pair bounced from there on Wednesday after the release of RBNZ Financial Stability Report. Pre-weekend pullback was deep but the pair still ended marginally ahead of the Dollar, posting Doji-like candle on the weekly chart.

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al_dcdemo 18 May

UPDATE 6: Next week will see the release of RBNZ Inflation Expectations q/q and GDT Price Index from New Zealand. But FOMC Meeting Minutes and inflation report from the US will be the events that the market will be focused on. We have proven support in 0.7300 - 0.7350 band, while resistance will be provided by 20, 50 and 100 DMA. The pair is still in range-bound mode even though the risk appears to be more to the downside.

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