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GBP/USD to slip further in the month ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.4725, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Confluence #Resistance Zone #Big Figure #Corrective Rally #Declining Wedge #1 4750 Level #Tightening #E U Referendum
Monthly chart
Medium term downtrend has broken longer term trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally that followed ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 20 month SMA, 50 month SMA and 1.60 level acted as a strong resistance - the pair was unable to crack it and turned lower.
Weekly chart
Significance of the 1.5750 - 1.6000 resistance zone is strengthened as we add 100 and 20…
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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Cable lost about 30 pips then turned around and shot up 70 pips before stalling again and returning back to unchanged.

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al_dcdemo 15 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Cable fell 450 pips since the beginning of the year and 900 since mid December. It broke 2015 low (~1.4565) and 1.45 big figure level and traded down to 1.4350 lows on Tuesday afternoon. It has been stabilizing around 1.44 since then but has been unable to rally past 1.4450 even after less dovish than expected BOE today. Support at 76.4% retracement of the 2009 to 2014 uptrend (~1.4370) remains firmly in place ahead of 2010 low (~1.4230). 1.45 level is the first stronger resistance to overcome, should the pair commence a retracement.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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al_dcdemo 27 Jan.

UPDATE 9: With a 100 pip up day, a daily range of almost 200 pips and the close near the high, Cable confirmed bullish bias that has been prevailing since the middle of the last week. China stocks tumbling aren't that important anymore with yuan stability and oil recovery supporting the risk-on mood. Last Friday's high was briefly violated before bulls took a pause. 1.4350 - 1.4375 is a strong level that includes highs from last week and lows from a week before. 1.44 shall see some resistance too ahead of stronger 1.4500 - 1.4525 area. Demand shall start coming in near 1.43.

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GBP/USD to continue to grind lower

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5125, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Range #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #Stop Run #Corrective Rally #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart
Medium term downtrend has broken longer term trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally that followed ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 20 month SMA, 50 month SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up ahead of 100 and 200 month SMA.
Weekly chart
Strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. Th…
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al_dcdemo 2 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Cable touched below 1.50 on Monday but bounced more than 130 pips from there before it turned back down. Weak Manufacturing and Construction PMI releases didn't help the pair which has been sold on most crosses. Today, 1.50 was properly busted and the low of the day was put in few pips below 1.49. The bounce ran out of steam just above 1.4950. Broken 1.50 level shall now act as a resistance, should the pair get there anytime soon. Some support is seen at April 21th low near 1.4850.

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al_dcdemo 9 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Cable staged an impressive rally on ECB day last week when it rallied more than 250 pips. It spent the last three days paring those gains. After a stop run below 1.50, the decline stopped and reversed in 1.4940 - 1.4960 support zone (Daily Wedge Bottom, 50's, Weeky Support 1). The pair is currently back above 1.50 level with more supply likely waiting near 1.5040 - 1.5060 (50's, Weekly Pivot Point, Daily Resistance 1, Previous Day High). 1.50 level appears to be a bull/bear line in sand at the moment.

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al_dcdemo 15 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Yesterday was a relatively volatile Monday for the Cable with the daily range of 120 pips. Today is shaping up to be of a sideways type but we'll see where the current USD buying will stall. 1.5130 - 1.5140 (Weekly Pivot Point, Low Of Day) is the immediate support ahead of 1.5080 - 1.5110 (Previous Day Low, 00's, Daily Support 1). Strong resistance 1.5180 - 1.5210 (Monthly Pivot Point, 00's, Daily Resistance 1) is followed by 1.5230 - 1.5250 (Previous Day High, 50 DMA, Previous Week High, 50's).

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al_dcdemo 28 Dec.

UPDATE 8: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. Lower-tier U.K. data, released on Wednesday and Thursday, most likely won't produce any impact. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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GBP/USD to stay well supported

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5375, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Range #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #Stop Run #Corrective Rally #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart
Medium term downtrend has broken longer term trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 50 week SMA, 20 week SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up ahead of 100 and 200 day SMA.
Weekly chart
The strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. The pair travele…
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al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 4: FOMC meeting Minutes were published yesterday evening. There was nothing new in them but the market did seem to expect a bit more hawkishness. An absence of a clear signal that rates will go up in December was perhaps the main driver behind the broad dollar selling that followed the publication. Cable rose to as high as 1.5295 in the hours after the release. 1.5300 - 1.5340 band, which includes 50 and 200 DMA, is the first stronger resistance before the confluence of 100 DMA and the descending trendline drawn off of August and November highs. Initial support is seen near 1.5250.

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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Sterling lost some 40 pips against the dollar last week. Weekly range was worth a little less than two cents. Price action from Monday to Wednesday was mostly of a sideways type. On Thursday, the pair broke above the recent range (1.515 - 1.525) and rose a good cent before it was capped by 200 DMA. It reversed those gains on Friday as it returned back to the range.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 6: U.K. will report its second estimate of GDP along with few other lower tier indicators. U.S. will publish several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. The pair is carving out a declining wedge pattern on a daily chart. Pattern support currently runs just below 1.50 while its resistance comes in near 1.54.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: Pip-wise, the pair was the loser of the week among seven major currency pairs. It lost a little less than 150 pips while its range was a bit more than that. The pair fell from the opening levels and, after making three consecutive higher lows on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, it looked as though consolidation will extend into Friday. It didn't and the pair closed at the lowest level since April.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: There will be plenty of data from the U.K. in the week ahead but the PMIs, Bank Stress Test Results and BOE Carney's speech will be in focus. U.S. macroeconomic data released next week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. Technically, the pair is flirting with the big 1.50 level. If it gives way, a stop run may extend to 1.4950 before any meaningful pullback.

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GBP/USD to stay around current levels

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Sep. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5275, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Range #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #Stop Run #Corrective Rally #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart:
Medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as the trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 50 week SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up.
Weekly chart:
The strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. The pair tr…
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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 5: Cable rallied in the morning and briefly touched above previous week high (1.5383) before it reversed to fall sharply ahead of inflation report. The report came out weak and suspicious price action before that suggests that it might have been leaked. Dovish comments from two BOE officials didn't help the pair either. It then fell all the way to 1.52, nearly 200 pips from the high of the day. It broke back below 200 DMA (1.5320) which shall now act as a resistance. We'll see what UK labour market report will bring tomorrow.

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al_dcdemo 17 Oct.

UPDATE 6: The pair was the second best performed of the week. Sterling gained a good cent against the dollar with weekly range of more than three cents. Main feature of weekly price action was a sharp reversal from inflation report induced dip. Decent labour market report (wage growth, lower unemployment rate) was enough to send the pair to 1.55 before it consolidated below the big figure.

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al_dcdemo 22 Oct.

UPDATE 7: Much better than expected September retail sales report (though accompanied by somewhat weaker revisions) just sent Cable to the top of the consolidation between 1.5410 and 1.5510. Confluence of 100 DMA, 1.55 big figure level and 76.4% retracement of the nine-day downswing have been capping the pair during the last six days, but this report may provide enough confidence to the market to at least clear stops above the resistance.

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al_dcdemo 23 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Even though BOE may end up hiking sooner rather than later and perhaps even before the Fed, the pair fell in the last two days. The decline is a consequence of weakness in the Euro, which fell on the back of very dovish ECB. 100 DMA, which currently runs near 1.55, held the topside well. 50 DMA was broken earlier today and the pair is trying to break below 200 DMA as I type.

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al_dcdemo 29 Oct.

UPDATE 9: At yesterday's FOMC meeting, Fed signaled that, all things being equal, they will hike in December. Most of the market expected them to maintain their recent neutrality and subsequent repricing sent the Euro nearly two cents lower. Cable fared somewhat better than that as it lost only three quarters of a cent. The pair is now trading below 200 DMA and, if US dollar strength continues, retest of October low (~1.51) and perhaps 1.50 will become quite likely. Confluence of 50 and 200 DMA near 1.5350 may prove to be a decent resistance in the near term.

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GBP/USD to remain well bid

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5725, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #200 Day Sma #Corrective Rally #Broadening Formation #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart:
Medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as the trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 50 week SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up.
Weekly chart:
The strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. The pair tr…
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al_dcdemo 6 Sep.

UPDATE 4: Manufacturing Production and BOE meeting from UK; PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from US will be the fundamental highlights in the week ahead. June low (1.5170) is the immediate support before May low (1.5089) and 1.50 big figure level. Should the pair bounce, initial resistance may be found at 1.5250 - 1.5275 (Friday high) and then stronger at 1.5325 - 1.5350 (July low, 200 DMA).

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al_dcdemo 11 Sep.

UPDATE 5: The theme of the week was the correction after nine-day decline in the previous two weeks. BOE held its second meeting in the new format and, despite recent worries and volatility in global markets, they weren't dovish and that lent the pair additional support as it retraced almost 50% of that downswing. Weekly range has been just over 300 pips and will likely stay that way, save for any fireworks in the US session.

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al_dcdemo 12 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Apart from eagerly awaited FOMC meeting, in which the Fed may begin to normalize their ultra easy monetary policy, there are three important risk events from the UK on the calendar for the next week: inflation, labour market and retail sales reports. 1.55 is the initial resistance before 1.5580 - 1.5600 (61.8% retracement, 00's) and 1.5675 - 1.5700 (76.4% retracement, 00's). 1.54 and then 1.5350 are the first two support levels.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 7: BOE speakers (Cunliffe, Carney), lending data, current account, GDP (final revision) and Manufacturing PMI will be the main fundamental events from the UK in the week ahead. The US will report CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP figures. The pair broke September low (~1.5275) on Friday and, despite failure to close below it, that implies some further losses with the near term potential to 1.50.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Cable recorded nine consecutive days of losses in late August / early September. With eight losing days in a row, the pair is set to repeat the "feat". However, it has started the day pretty well and, unless US traders sell it below the day's opening price, that may mark a beginning of an upswing. Intraday support is seen between 1.5115 and 1.5135 (Previous Week Low, Low Of Day, Previous Day Low, Daily Support 1) and resistance at 1.5185 - 1.5205 (High Of Day, Daily Resistance 1, H1 100 SMA, 00's, Previous Day High).

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USD/JPY won't leave the station just yet

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 120.6900, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Yen #USD/JPY #Fomc #Correction #Range #Bullish Bias #Resistance Zone #Consolidative Pause #Ascent
Monthly chart:
The pair still appears to be taking a consolidative pause in the rally towards strong resistance zone, which consists of:
1. Trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998.
2. 23.6% retracement of the November 1982 to October 2011 decline.
3. 2007 high at 124.14.
On the downside, first major support is seen at 200 month SMA and 105 level.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December 2014, the pair has been consolidating in 115.50 - 122.00 ran…
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al_dcdemo 11 May

UPDATE 4: There's nothing special from Japan on the calendar for the week ahead, but Japanese traders will be returning to their desks after a long holiday and that may liven things up a bit. From US we have (Core) Retail Sales, PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and that will be closely watch for further signs of recovery. I see the pair stay in recent ranges as the market will be monitoring data from the States.

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al_dcdemo 17 May

UPDATE 5: Price action this week was in many respects similar to that of the previous week as the pair mostly traded in 119.00 - 120.00 range. It broke below last week's low on Thursday but was not able to sustain the breakout and subsequently returned back up. When one could argue that the last week's candle was somewhat bullish, this week's one signals clear indecision. Ranges are getting tighter as the pair is awaiting catalyst for a breakout.

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al_dcdemo 18 May

UPDATE 6: Week ahead could see a rise in volatility and perhaps even a breakout from a tight two-month range as we have Prelim GDP q/q and BOJ meeting from Japan in addition to FOMC Meeting Minutes and inflation report from the US. Initial support on the downside is found in 118.25 - 118.75 band, while 120.00 - 120.50 shall provide first decent line of defence on the upside. Whichever way the pair will break, will likely define the direction for the next leg.

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al_dcdemo 24 May

UPDATE 7: There was no particular catalyst that helped the pair break out of its recent tight range (118.50 - 120.50) as the return of the broader Dollar strength was enough. The pair recorded five consecutive days of gains before pulling back a bit on Thursday, but that was reversed on Friday when it posted outside day candle and the highest weekly close since 2007, some 50 pips below the March cycle-high at 122.03.

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al_dcdemo 25 May

UPDATE 8: Calendar for the week ahead features lots of interesting Japanese (Trade Balance, Retail Sales y/y and CPI report) and US (CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and particularly Prelim GDP q/q) releases. With the pair so close to the highs, action will likely commence right from the weekly open. If the cycle-high (122.03) gives way, there may not be much chart based resistance until July 2007 (123.67) and June 2007 (124.14) highs. Initial support may be found between 121.00 and 121.30.

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USD/JPY grinding higher

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 121.3800, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Yen #USD/JPY #Fomc #Correction #Range #Bullish Bias #Resistance Zone #Pause
Monthly chart:
The pair still appears to be taking a consolidative pause in a rally towards strong resistance zone, which consists of:
1. Trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998.
2. 23.6% retracement of the November 1982 to October 2011 decline.
3. 2007 high at 124.14.
On the downside, first major support is seen at 200 month SMA and then 105 level.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December 2014, the pair has been consolidating in 115.50 - 121.85…
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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: As the moves were (again) mostly USD based, price action in the pair was similar to that of the other major pairs. Exception was Monday when Harada's remark about Yen PPP level sent the pair tumbling almost 100 pips. The pair closed below 20, 50 and 100 DMA but remained above April 3 low at 118.72. Weekly candle looks bearish, but the pair didn't manage to close below previous week's low.

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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Besides Unemployment Claims on Thursday and Core Durable Goods Orders on Friday, which may well be market moving, there's few other low impact economic data releases in the week ahead. Focus will likely be on technicals and whether the pair will break below April 3 (118.72) and March 26 (118.33) lows. If that materializes, there's not a lot in the way of support until 5-month range bottom near 115.50.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 7: The pair remained range-bound in the past week, it surged on the first three trading days and then gave it all back on Thursday and Friday. Current trading range is tight (about 200 pips) and centered on 20, 50 and 100 DMA, but the pair is still contained in broader 5-month range (115.50 - 122.00). Weekly candle signals indecision but the pair made lower high and closed below the three moving averages, so technical picture looks slightly bearish.

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al_dcdemo 26 Apr.

UPDATE 8: There are three events in the week ahead that have significant potential to move the pair: Advance GDP q/q and FOMC Statement on Wednesday and BOJ meeting (Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference) on Thursday. No change is expected from the BOJ, while US GDP has potential to disappoint and FOMC might strike dovish tones. If 118.25 - 118.50 support goes, then the pair will be testing 116.80 - 117.00 quickly, before 200 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 26 Apr.

UPDATE 8: There are three events in the week ahead that have significant potential to move the pair: Advance GDP q/q and FOMC Statement on Wednesday and BOJ meeting (Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference) on Thursday. No change is expected from the BOJ, while US GDP has potential to disappoint and FOMC might strike dovish tones. If 118.25 - 118.50 support goes, then the pair will be testing 116.80 - 117.00 quickly and then 200 DMA.

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USD/JPY to rise slowly

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 121.0900, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Yen #USD/JPY #Rally #Correction #Range #Resistance Zone #Pause #Slower Pace #Price Channel
Monthly chart:
The pair appears to be making a bit of a pause in a rally towards strong resistance zone, which consists of:
1. Trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998.
2. 23.6% retracement of the November 1982 to October 2011 decline.
3. 2007 high at 124.14.
On the downside, the first major support is 200 month SMA and then 105 level.
Weekly chart:
After 600+ pip correction in December 2014, the pair has been consolidating in 115.50 - 121.85 range, though most…
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al_dcdemo 15 Mar.

UPDATE 2: Monday was the day when the pair moved the most. It managed to break above December 2014 cycle high at 121.84, but was rejected and 100 pip pullback ensued. It went sideways from there with another attempt to break lower on Thursday, before settling mid-range to end the week. Where it will go from here will depend mostly on next week's FOMC meeting, but the most likely direction is still up.

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al_dcdemo 21 Mar.

UPDATE 3: The pair started the week in a very tight (less than 50 pip) range and then exploded lower on Wednesday, but the daily range was the smallest among major pairs. In subsequent action, the pair retested pre-FOMC range and then declined 130 pips to close the week just above 120 level. 50 DMA at 119.32 and 100 DMA at 119.18 will act as first strong support levels, should the pair continue to slide.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 4: Price action in the pair was mostly sideways, with exception of Thursday when it took out stops below 100 DMA but then quickly snapped back to slowly declining range. However, it closed the week below both 50 and 100 DMA, which is strong bearish signal. With month-end, quarter-end (plus fiscal-year-end in Japan) and Good Friday holiday next week, we could be in for some volatile moves on lower liquidity.

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 1 Apr.

Good job

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Apr.

Thanks! It's 90 pips from the target at the moment, which is fairly good.

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It's probably still to soon to call GBP/USD bottom

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Jan. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.496, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Boe #GBP/USD #Trendline #Cable #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Resistance Zone #Neutral Mode
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend has broken the longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. After briefly trading below 1.50, the pair stalled just above the level. July 2013 low of 1.4813 should provide some support and, if it goes, there's little to stop the decline until May 2010 low at 1.4228.
Weekly chart:
Monthly trendline, 1.55 level and 20 week SMA will provide resistance zone (1.5250 - 1.5550) in case of a d…
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al_dcdemo 8 Feb.

It was an exceptional week for the pair, in which all three major PMIs showed improvement. The pair staged strong technical breakout from four-week consolidation/wedge and then set the scene for a promising reversal attempt. In the end it was all slightly marred by a very strong US labour report, but if the Dollar won't be able to follow through, this latest dip may prove to be a great buying opportunity.

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al_dcdemo 15 Feb.

The pair started the week on a slightly weaker note, but lack of follow through after last Friday's decline gave the bulls much needed encouragement to hold the price above 1.52. It was not until Thursday, that the pair decisively broke higher on what was generally viewed as hawkish Inflation Report, breaking above the descending trendline that capped the pair since July 2014 and 50 DMA in the process. Next major resistance is now at 1.55 before 100 DMA just above 1.56.

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al_dcdemo 22 Feb.

Weekly range was small (~150 pips) for usually volatile Cable. After jumping on much better than expected jobs report and neutral but positive MPC Minutes on Wednesday, it then failed to follow through on dovish FOMC Minutes. The rally stalled ahead of weekly resistance at 1.55. On Friday it followed the Euro lower but it still managed to close near previous week's close. Outlook now depends on incoming US data, but will need to convincingly break 1.55 to confirm bullish bias.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 24 Feb.

This one is way off and doesn't seem it will get any closer. If it makes you feel better I was also betting on a retracement down south. But good analysis though.

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al_dcdemo 24 Feb.

Thanks! Probably we were not the only ones, as at that point it looked like momentum even accelerated.

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USD/JPY may well continue to linger around current levels

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Jan. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 119.6800, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Yen #USD/JPY #Rally #Correction #Range #Resistance Zone #Pause #Monthly Resistance Zone #Slower Pace
Monthly chart:
The pair appears to be making a bit of a pause in a rally towards strong resistance zone, which consists of:
1. Trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998.
2. 23.6% retracement of the November 1982 to October 2011 decline.
3. 2007 high at 124.14.
On the downside, the first major support is 200 month SMA and then 105 level.
Weekly chart:
After 600+ pip correction in December 2014, the pair has been contained in 115.50 - 121.85 range. It appears to be…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 28 Feb.

The pair ended the week with nice 60 pip gain, but it was not easy as there were two turnarounds. First one came after Yellen testimony wasn't as hawkish as market expected, and the pair sold off more than 100 pips in response. The second one came after solid CPI and GDP reports. Immediate resistance (trendline off December 8 2014 and February 12 highs) is now seen near 120 and then the next one between 120.50 and 120.75. On the downside, 50 DMA should provide initial support.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 Feb.

It seems to be on the upside, but on Monday it may still get closer to the target.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Mar.

Looking at Dukascopy online charts, it closed just below the target at 119.57. Would love a quiet, ranging start to the week. :)

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 2 Mar.

Great analysis, great compatibility with the forecast, detailed Update 
congratulations  : )

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2 Mar.

Thanks! This one turned out really well, as the pair behaved (almost) in the same way as expected :)

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