Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by the dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway today. Markets have continuously underestimated Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.
al_dcdemo's Blog
FOMC meeting minutes didn't impress
FOMC Meeting Minutes, which were released yesterday evening, didn't provide us with anything new. Officials did acknowledge increased downside risks to inflation outlook stemming mostly from USD strength and oil weakness but didn't back away from rate hikes.
Reaction to the release was muted. Price recorded a couple of small whipsaws before returning to what it was doing before - a pattern that is quite prevalent with these releases.
Reaction to the release was muted. Price recorded a couple of small whipsaws before returning to what it was doing before - a pattern that is quite prevalent with these releases.
USD/JPY technicals muddy
Monthly chart:
The pair broke above strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns in regard to global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart:
In the last week of August, the pair broke back below the monthly resistanc…
The pair broke above strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns in regard to global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart:
In the last week of August, the pair broke back below the monthly resistanc…
USD/JPY uptrend intact
Monthly chart:
The pair broke a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After the pullback in June, the pair appears poised to close above there again. There's not a lot of chart based resistance until 2002 high at 135.16, but the big figure levels at 125.00 and 130.00 will without doubt be closely watched.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December…
The pair broke a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After the pullback in June, the pair appears poised to close above there again. There's not a lot of chart based resistance until 2002 high at 135.16, but the big figure levels at 125.00 and 130.00 will without doubt be closely watched.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December…
USD/JPY to remain supported
Monthly chart:
The pair broke a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14) and closed the month of May above that, but retraced roughly half of the gains in June. There's not a lot of chart based resistance until 2002 high at 135.16, but the big figure levels at 125.00 and 130.00 will without doubt be closely watched.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in D…
The pair broke a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14) and closed the month of May above that, but retraced roughly half of the gains in June. There's not a lot of chart based resistance until 2002 high at 135.16, but the big figure levels at 125.00 and 130.00 will without doubt be closely watched.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in D…