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BULLISH REGIME

Durden Posted 30 May as Analysis on NZD/JPY, Target: 77.689, Date: 2nd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/JPY #Rsi #Hidden Markov Processes
TECHNICAL AND STATISTICAL INDICATORS: Hidden Markov Model (HMM) , Standard Dev (SD), RSI, MA, Volatility, Volume
The traders inspired in statistical trading (HMM in this study) could find some indications studying the Hidden Markov Models in Finance book, author Rogemar S. M. J. Elliott.
Weekly VISION
No distinguish tendency with the Hidden Markov Computation. The Volume and SD give suggestion of a no regime technical analysis.
Graphically there is not a great indication of the hidden regime and…
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Durden 7 June

Le analisi grafiche dei prezzi sostengono  del tipo sell.
Analisi statistiche Markoviane di tipo Hidden consentono di valutare dinamiche di tipo slightly bearish.  In 20 min chart è possible valutare uno studio sulla  convergenza della Standard Dev. su livelli di  16.00 questo integrato a  un valore di RSI di 80.00 in 5 min chart può essere considerato un possible inizio per un regime di sell. 

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Durden 28 June

Gli studi matematici degli andamenti dei prezzi in chiusura di candela 30 min concedono un leggera predominanza alla domanda.
Gli indicatori a supporto sono Trix e RSI.
Integrando HMM e indicatori può essere modellizzato un valore probabilistico di avere circa un 56% di probabilità di ottenere una dinamica bullish a partire dalle  giovedì 28 giugno 2018 13:45.

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BEARISH REGIME WITH HMM

Durden Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/JPY, Target: 74.082, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/JPY #Rsi #Hidden Markov Processes
TECHNICAL AND STATISTICAL INDICATORS: Volatility, Volume, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) , MA, RSI, Standard Dev (SD)
The traders fascinated in statistical trading (HMM in this study) can find some indications studying the Hidden Markov Models in Finance book, author Rogemar S. M. J. Elliott.
Weekly VISION
HMM frame of reference suggest a no regime dynamics for the cross pair. The study consent a possible 6,51% to have an appreciation of the pair value. This study admits a Support level price at - 40…
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Durden 4 Apr.

La chart analisi possono considerarsi  di tipo sell.
Analisi statistiche Markoviane di tipo Hidden consentono di valutare dinamiche di tipo slightly bearish.  In H1 chart è possible valutare uno studio sulla  convergenza della Standard Dev. su livelli di  18.00 questo unito a un valore di RSI di 82.00 in 5 min chart può essere considerato un possible inizio per un regime di sell. 

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Durden 11 Apr.

Le analisi grafiche suggeriscono una dinamica di tipo bullish. Le analisi Markoviane consentono di assecondare una possibilità di Buy.

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Durden 18 Apr.

Indicazione di valutazione per la coppia con lo studio dei dei risultati hidden. I grafici invece potrebbero indicare delle tendenze laterali. In generale se si dovesse entrare intorno alle 12:57:04 si potrebbe suggerire di uscire ad una distanza di 1.13 STDEV.

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Durden 19 Apr.

La valutazione delle inclinazioni delle MA 8, 64, 329 caratterizzanti i regimi statistici della coppia attualmente  15:04  nei TF 15 Min suggeriscono dei regimi di vendita .
Le analisi sui volumi non vengono significativamente a negare  al regime di Sell o laterale.

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Durden 30 Apr.

Lo studio dei modelli markoviani nascosti  potrebbe suggerire un possible sviluppo rialzista.
Se si dovessero poi avere dei valori di rientro da RSI in ipervenduto intorno a 15.00 in 30 Min, si potrebbe anche provare una trade in buy

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BEARISH DYNAMICS

Durden Posted 22 Feb. as Analysis on NZD/JPY, Target: 77.922, Date: 2nd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/JPY #Rsi #Hidden Markov Processes
TECHNICAL AND STATISTICAL INDICATORS: MA, RSI, Standard Dev (SD), Volatility, Volume, Hidden Markov Model (HMM)
The fascinated statistical traders could study the HMM considering the Rogemar S. M. J. Elliott book (Hidden Markov Models in Finance book).
Weekly VISION
No unequivocable tendency with the HMM formulation. The Volume and SD give indication of a no regime dynamics.
Graphically there is not a great indication of the hidden regime and it is not so easy test
specific zones of Support and …
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Durden 28 Mar.

Mercato abbastanza indeciso con una predominanza alla lateralizzazione e possibili indicazioni per un Buy marginale.
Possibilità per una trade  di tipo bullish  con uscita su una distanza di circa 1.13  della  STDEV.

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Durden 30 Mar.

La metodologia di HMM integrati con la pendenza delle medie a 8 e 35 su tf a 30 Min possono suggerire dinamiche bullish

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Durden 31 Mar.

Una valutazione grafica e statistica  potrebbe suggerire un possible sviluppo rialzista.
Se si dovessero poi avere dei valori di rientro da RSI in ipervenduto intorno a 5.00 in H1, si potrebbe anche provare una trade in buy

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Durden 1 Apr.

lo studio grafico non sembra coerente con le analisi probabilistiche di HMM.
I calcoli riferenti alle chiusure di  01 April 2018 22:15 in 30 Min propendono per una direzionalità leggermente ribassista il grafico della coppia invece sostiene in parte un regime di tipo rialzista.
 

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Durden 2 Apr.

Gli studi matematici degli andamenti dei prezzi in chiusura di candela H1 concedono un leggera predominanza alla domanda.
Gli indicatori a sostegno sono Trix e RSI.
Integrando HMM e indicatori può essere modellizzato un valore probabilistico di avere circa un 57% di probabilità di ottenere una dinamica bullish a partire dalle  02 April 2018 09:30.

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BULLISH REGIME

Durden Posted 18 Jan. as Analysis on NZD/JPY, Target: 82.3209, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/JPY #Rsi #Hidden Markov Processes
TECHNICAL AND STATISTICAL INDICATORS: RSI, MA, Standard Dev (SD), Volatility, Volume, Hidden Markov Model (HMM)
The interested statistical traders could study the HMM considering the Rogemar S. M. J. Elliott book (Hidden Markov Models in Finance book).
Weekly VISION
Chart and Indicators analysis do not give an indisputable indication about the kind of the pair dynamics.
The stochastic study also do not admit explicit tendency with the Hidden Markov Computation. The Volume and SD give expression …
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Durden 24 Feb.

La coppia può manifestare una lateralizzazione. 
HMM e RSI sembrano suggerire una possibile fase di indecisione.

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Durden 26 Feb.

La valutazione delle inclinazioni delle MA 8, 64, 329
caratterizzanti i regimi statistici della coppia attualmente (19:11:14 nei TF 30 Min
suggeriscono dei regimi di svalutazione.
Le analisi sui volumi non sembrano contrapporsi
al regime di Sell o laterale.

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Durden 27 Feb.

La chart analysis suggeriscono una  predominanza bearish. Le analisi Markoviane sembrano invece propendere per una fase di lateralizzazione.

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Durden 28 Feb.

Le analisi grafiche dei prezzi  alle 21:15 sembrano far convergere un criterio  di tipologia vendita. Analisi statistiche Markoviane di tipo Hidden consentono di valutare dinamiche di tipo slightly bearish. In 30 min  chart è possible valutare uno studio sulla convergenza della Standard Dev. su livelli verso le18.00 questo insieme a  un valore di RSI di 80.00 in 5 min chart può essere considerato un possible inizio per un regime di sell.

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Durden 1 Mar.

Indicazione di buy con lo studio dei processi hidden.
Le analisi dei grafici invece potrebbero indicare delle tendenze ribassiste.
In generale se si dovesse entrare in sell sul ritracciamento della upper bollinger intorno alle 09:30:00  si potrebbe suggerire di uscire ad una distanza di 2.00 STDEV.

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BEARISH WITH POSSIBILITY OF RETRACEMENT

Durden Posted 30 June as Analysis on NZD/JPY, Target: 0.7191, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/JPY #Rsi #Hidden Markov Processes

Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 0.7002 0.7191 0.8000

Weekly Charts pattern : resistance and support lines, W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision
The pair is moving in a bearish dynamics with a possible retracement at the support line at 0.7002. The chart analysis indicates the bearish trend are coherent with the Hidden Markov Models Analysis and the RSI momentum indicator. The chart analysis support the bearish regime.
Daily Vision
The D1 scale indicates that the pattte…
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Durden 31 July

The release can support the Yen consolidation

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Durden 31 July

The pair is actually around the 0.7367, the RSI and the parabolic sar are coherent with a bullish recovery

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Durden 1 Aug.

The JP manifacturing PMI      measured a 0.3 improvement on market consensum

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Durden 1 Aug.

The pair is a + 0.01%, the chart analysis and the RSI support the slightly bullish regime

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Durden 1 Aug.

It seems that the no bias regime could dominate

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BEARISH REGIME

Durden Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on NZD/JPY, Target: 73.1980, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #NZD #NZD/JPY #Rsi #Hidden Markov Processes
Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 73.1980 77.010

Weekly Charts pattern : resistance and support lines, W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

The pair NZD/JPY is moving in a bearish dynamics with a resistance line at 77.010 . The chart analysis integrated with the Hidden Markov Models Analysis, the RSI indicator support the trend. The RSI and the Standard dev support the trend.
The Brent Oil forecast can facilitate the NZD bearish regime.

Daily Vision
…
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Durden 30 Apr.

The NZD/JPY is in a slightly bearish regime and the HMM integrated with the RSI study support the dynamics

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Durden 2 May

The HMM analysis of the pair, suggest the possibility of a bearish regime for the US session

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Durden 11 May

Possible bearish retracement in consideration of the HMM

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Durden 17 May

The chart analysis and the hidden markov model support the no bias
regime.
The dynamics of  The nippon economy can lead to a bullish regime, the monetary policy and the oil analysis also can give support to this study

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INTEREST RATE BULLISH REGIME

Durden Posted 31 Jan. as Analysis on NZD/JPY, Target: 79.9983, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Interest Rate #NZD/JPY #Rsi #Hidden Markov Processes

Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 74.807 79.9983 83.029

Weekly Charts pattern : resistance and support lines, W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

The pair is moving in a bullish dynamics (Nippon Interest Rate) with a resistance line at 83.029. The chart analysis integrated with the RSI and the volume Analysis support the trend. The Hidden Markov Models Analysis and the RSI are coherent with a slightly bullish regime.

Daily Vision

The D1 scale…
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Durden 31 Jan.

HMM analysis in chart H4 shows a bullish regime. The chart analysis integrated with the RSI and the volatility studies are coherent with a  buying  market side forecast. The pair NZD/JPY can have a  buying domination  at the Asian session opening.

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Durden 5 Feb.

New zeland economy can have a bearish dynamics in consideration of the Oil forecast.  So NZD/JPY could show a bearish dynamics.

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Durden 23 Feb.

The chart analysis, the RSI and the volatility studies are coherent with a  sellers market side forecast. 
HMM analysis in chart H4 shows a  bearish regime.  The chart analysis and the Standard dev analysis are coherent with a NZD/JPY bearish market.

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BEARISH REGIME

Durden Posted 26 Nov. as Analysis on NZD/JPY, Target: 77.2230, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #NZD #NZD/JPY #Rsi #Hidden Markov Processes
Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 74.998 77.223 82.122

Weekly Charts pattern : resistance and support lines, W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

The pair NZD/JPY is moving in a bearish dynamics with a support line at 74.998 . The chart analysis integrated with the Hidden Markov Models Analysis, the RSI indicator support the trend. The RSI and the Standard dev support the trend.
The Brent Oil forecast can facilitate the NZD bearish regime.

Daily Vision
…
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Durden 30 Nov.

HMM analysis in chart H4 shows a no bias - slightly bearish regime. The chart analysis integrated with the RSI and the volatility studies are coherent with a slightly selling  market side forecast. The pair NZD/JPY can have a  -0.02 % at the Asian session opening.

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Durden 13 Dec.

The NZD/JPY pair can have a bearish retracement in consideration of the HMM forecast.

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TRENDLESS REGIME

Durden Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on NZD/JPY, Target: 74.8870, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Volatility #NZD/JPY #Volume #Hidden Markov Processes

Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 72,882 - 74.887 - 82.831

Weekly Charts pattern : resistance and support lines, W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

The pair NZD/JPY is moving in a bearish dynamics with a support line at 72,882 . The chart analysis integrated with the Hidden Markov Models Analysis, the RSI indicator support the trend. The RSI and the Standard dev support the trend.
The Brent Oil forecast can facilitate the NZD bearish regime.

Daily Vision…
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foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 1 Oct.

Great analysis.  stai in ufficio ?

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Durden 2 Oct.

The  NZD/JPY  is in a slightly bullish tendency with a resistance zone at 80.01. The JPY positive bias can be improved by the CFTC JPY speculative net positions release. The hidden state target is evaluated at +0.02 % at US closing market.
foreignexchange  yes 

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Durden 8 Oct.

The pair shows a bullish regime. Also Hidden markov model and RSI support the +0.8% of the NZD pair again the JPY counterpart.
JPY  Fundamental suggest the buy side regime.

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Bearish with retracement NZD/JPY

Durden Posted 31 May as Analysis on NZD/JPY, Target: 89.3010, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #NZD #Trend #Bearish #NZD/JPY #Rsi #Retracement #Hidden Markov Processes

Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 80.0012 - 84.001 - 85.302 - 88.087 - 89.301 - 93.86 . 99.8992

Weekly Charts pattern : resistance and support lines, W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

The pair is moving in a bearish dynamics with a support line at 85.302 . The chart analysis integrated with the Hidden Markov Models Analysis, the RSI indicator support the trend.

Daily Vision

The D1 scale indicates that the patttern is in a bearish trend with a support at 85.301. …
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4 Comments
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Durden 14 June

NZD interest rate at 3.25% give support for a bearish dynamics.  Hidden Markov Model applied to the pair can generate an objective price around 82 pips from actual price.
The RSI also support the bearish side of the market.

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Durden 27 June

RBNZ published its Statement of Intent and took the opportunity to repeat once again that the "unjustified and unsustainable levels" of the New Zealand dollar (NZD) have significantly  not improved the country's economy, in addition to the  of the Australian and Chinese economies bearish trend and the sharp drop in the prices of  caseary products can lead the NZD dollars in a bearish  trend.

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Durden 27 June

  The unemployment rate at 3.3%, . In addition, on an annual basis, inflation rose by 0.5%
Abeconomics strategy  to stimulate  inflation through consumer spending. For now, the policy of Shinzo Abe seems to work and the latest data show that the country is emerging from economic recession . So the pair could have a slightly bearish fundamentals support.

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Durden 29 June

The RBNZ is probably committed to devalue the kiwi, so  bullish forecast.

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