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EUR/USD

A wide trade surplus, originating mostly from German exports, means that funds are flowing into the euro area. When markets are calm, this influx pushes the common currency higher. However, the eurozone has its share of economic and political issues and speculation takes its toll.
The ECB will halve bond-buys to 30 billion euros from January 2018. However, it left the door open to extending the QE program beyond September, and this hurt the euro. A weaker euro makes exports more attractive and p…
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EUR/USD

Will EUR/USD continue falling? A lot will depend on the ECB meeting minutes released this Thu with some members wanting the ECB to pre-announce the end of bond-buying after the current scheme ends in Sep'18. However, our friend old Draghi wants to keep pressure on as inflation remains low and he is openly doing all he can to drive down and to keep the Euro low. He has not much success in doing that as the Euro seems to be high on something.
Market essentially consolidated throughout last week – …
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EUR/USD

A sharp rise, over a short period of time, in EUR/USD above 1.25 would test the ECB’s ‘pain threshold’. However, this is unlikely in the absence of any disorderly Eurozone bond market moves or an externally driven downturn in the global risk environment. The EUR could gain more ground before it becomes a cause for concern for the ECB.
The next major catalyst for a move higher will be when markets position for higher ECB deposit rates which could see EUR/USD rallying to 1.25 by summer 2018.
For t…
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EUR/USD

Wishing all Dukascopy Community Members & Forum/Site Moderators a very Happy & Prosperous new year 2018

In the final trading day of 2017, EUR/USD very briefly touched just passed the 1.20 level before retiring down to the 1.199 level to usher in the new year 2018.
As the saying goes: When nothing happens, euro/dollar rises!...and the pair did exactly that.
Going into the 1st week of trading in 2018, there are a numbers of EZ market moving economic data:
1) EZ Manufacturing PMIs
2) Spanish Unemp…
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EUR/USD

The world's most popular currency pair has few periods of volatility in 2017 but during the year end long holidays season, the Euro rallied up to the 1.198-1.199 levels and stayed there to usher in the new year. The saying "When nothing happens, EUR/USD rises" is all so true!
So, big question on Traders mind is: Where will EUR/USD go in 2018?
That is a difficult question to answer with any certainty because of many factors in the Euro Zone and the United States geopolitical arena. For example: p…
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EUR/USD

Eurozone employment and industrial production data slated for release in the European session today and they are generally expected to come out fairly well with more or less the same as last.
The US Fed is on track to hike the interest rates by 25 bps later today. Further, upbeat US PPI data boosts hopes of stronger CPI figures due to be reported in the NA session.
Latest US political headlines of a Trump’s candidate who lost the Alabama US Senate race could make it difficult for Trump to pass t…
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EUR/USD

EUR/USD pair trimmed some of its early gains and has now retreated around 20-25 pips from the vicinity of the 1.1800 levels.
A sharper-than-expected retracement in German ZEW economic sentiment index, coming in at 17.4 for Dec'19 as compared to previous month's 18.7, was further seen weighing on EUR/USD today.
Focus is on the highly-anticipated FOMC decision, which along with the ECB announcement on Thu'17, would help investors determine the pair's next leg of directional move.
My personal view …
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EUR/USD

This week, there will be 4 monetary policy announcements and, with the European Union’s Summit & a U.S. tax conference, a highly volatile trading week can be expected and, yes, even anticipated by the forex market.
Last week, the USD ended the week stronger against all major currencies with the CAD & AUD leading losses. Despite generally healthy data, the EUR/USD fell every day of the past week . Though this could be attributed to the rise in the USD, the single currency is also pressured by Ger…
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EUR/USD

EUR/USD extended bearish slide through the mid-European session and dropped to 2-1/2 week lows.Optimism over major US tax reform plan and passage of the funding bill to avert a government shutdown continued underpinning the US Dollar and has been one of the key factors weighing on the major.Incoming US labor market data, including the latest ADP report on private sector employment and initial jobless claims remained supportive for an eventual Fed rate hike move at next week's meeting.
A good pi…
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EUR/USD

EUR/USD retains its bearish stance heading into the Asian opening, below its 100 SMA in the daily chart for the first time in 3 weeks. On shorter term 4 hours chart, the risk also leans towards the downside as price has fallen further below its 20 and 100 SMAs, with the shortest gaining downward traction above the largest, as it continue to near oversold territory. 1.1820-30 region is now the immediate resistance ahead of the 1.1870 price zone where selling interest capped the upside at the st…
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