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Kiwi lower on RBNZ rate cut

al_dcdemo Updated 11 June  in #Trader's blog #NZD/USD #Kiwi #Rbnz #38 2 Retracement #Official Cash Rate
RBNZ (un)expectedly cut its Official Cash Rate overnight to 3.25% from 3.50%, citing risks to inflation and demand outlooks. It appears that the bank entered an easing cycle, although they've said that further decisions will be data dependant.
Kiwi gapped more than 150 pips as the data were released in the most illiquid time of the day. After an unconvincing bounce, the pair continued lower and is currently attempting to sustain a break below the big 0.70 level. Below there, the next stronger su…
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Kiwi to the lowest since 2011

al_dcdemo Updated 29 May  in #Trader's blog #NZD/USD #Kiwi #Big Figure #38 2 Retracement #Anz Business Confidence
Kiwi broke below February low at 0.7176 yesterday and traded down to 0.7129, to the lowest in four years. Weaker than expected ANZ Business Confidence overnight didn't help it and the pair is hanging above the lows.
March 2011 low at 0.7113 is the first big level to watch before 0.70 big figure level and 38.2% retracement (of the 2011 to 2011 uptrend) near 0.6950.
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NZD/USD will continue to trade around current levels

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7725, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Breakout #Bullish #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Kiwi #Rising Wedge #Rbnz #Range Bound #Conditionally Dovish Stance
Monthly chart:
In January, the pair has busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 - 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February, March and April were more or less range-bound. Support is now firmly established at 0.7175 with more at 0.70 level and 50.0% retracement (of 2009 to 2011 uptrend) at 0.6868. April candle still signals indecision but is slightly more bullish than previous one in that it closed above pivotal 0.76 level.
Weekly chart:
The pair…
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al_dcdemo 3 May

UPDATE 2: Although there are few data points out from China and Australia that may affect the pair, data from New Zealand (Employment Change q/q and Unemployment Rate, GDT Price Index) and US (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Non-Farm Employment Change) will be the most market moving. 50 day SMA is the first line of defence of the downside, while 0.76 level shall offer initial resistance on upticks.

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al_dcdemo 10 May

UPDATE 3: Since RBNZ changed its stance to conditionally dovish last week, the pair was mostly offered. It was no different this week, although the decline was slower. Weaker than expected employment report added to worries and many are now expecting at least one rate cut by the end of the year. Weekly candle was slightly bearish but the pair still remains in upward sloping three month consolidation.

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al_dcdemo 11 May

UPDATE 4: From New Zealand in the week ahead, we will get RBNZ Financial Stability Report on Tuesday and shortly after that a speech from RBNZ Governor Wheeler. On Thursday, Q1 Retail Sales will give the latest update on the economy. (Core) Retail Sales, PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from US will be watched closely to provide further clues about potential Q2 recovery. There's risk that the pair breaks lower and strong support may not come in until closer to 0.72.

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al_dcdemo 17 May

UPDATE 5: It looked like the week would be a losing one as the pair fell nearly 150 pips from last Friday's closing levels on Monday. However, strong support at 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend stalled the decline and the pair bounced from there on Wednesday after the release of RBNZ Financial Stability Report. Pre-weekend pullback was deep but the pair still ended marginally ahead of the Dollar, posting Doji-like candle on the weekly chart.

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al_dcdemo 18 May

UPDATE 6: Next week will see the release of RBNZ Inflation Expectations q/q and GDT Price Index from New Zealand. But FOMC Meeting Minutes and inflation report from the US will be the events that the market will be focused on. We have proven support in 0.7300 - 0.7350 band, while resistance will be provided by 20, 50 and 100 DMA. The pair is still in range-bound mode even though the risk appears to be more to the downside.

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NZD/USD to continue floating

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7637, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Kiwi #Range #Bullish Bias #Rbnz #Indecision #Shooting Star #Neutral Stance
Monthly chart:
In January, the pair has busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 - 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February and March were more or less range-bound. Support is now firmly established at 0.7175 with more at 0.70 level and 50.0% retracement (of 2009 to 2011 uptrend) at 0.6868. March candle signals indecision and direction is not clear at the moment.
Weekly chart:
The pair mostly traded in 0.7175 - 0.7600 range in February and March.…
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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 6: New Zealand CPI report will be released early on Monday but even if it comes out weaker than expected, the dip will likely be bought into as commodity weakness is still regarded as temporary. Provided that the Dollar pullback continues, any declines should not extend past 50 and 100 DMA, which are serving as an additional level of support below 0.76. On the topside, 200 DMA shall offer decent resistance.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 7: Kiwi was the laggard among major pairs in the past week but still has lost only about a cent. Weak CPI report, RBNZ jawboning and option expires were cited as the main culprits for the decline. Even though it closed the week (just) below pivotal 0.76 level, it still managed to preserve foothold above 50 and 100 DMA, so the technical picture doesn't look bearish at all.

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al_dcdemo 26 Apr.

UPDATE 8: There's quite a few important US, NZ and Chinese data releases in the week ahead that may impact the pair but the main events are RBNZ (Official Cash Rate and Rate Statement) and FOMC, both on Wednesday. Technically, the pair is right in the middle of 7-month trading range. It is contained by 50 and 100 DMA on the downside and 200 DMA on the upside. Whichever side will give way first, will likely determine direction for the next leg.

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al_dcdemo 30 Apr.

UPDATE 9: The pair fell in the early Asian session today, after RBNZ adopted conditional dovish stance. As widely expected, they have also talked the currency down, but its questionable if and to what extent this kind of "jawboning" works in current weaker Dollar environment. The pair is holding 0.76 pretty well and if there won't be any significant month-end flows overnight, it will most likely close the week above the level.

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al_dcdemo 1 May

UPDATE 10: If it weren't for New Zealand finance minister English comments overnight in which he "invited" RBNZ to ease monetary policy, the pair would most likely held above 0.76 level. It didn't fell much though and there wasn't any follow-through on that in European session. The pair ends forecast period roughly 50 pips below the target, which I'm quite happy about, even more so because the pair nicely conformed to the prediction outline.

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USD weakness continues

al_dcdemo Posted 20 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #USD #Resistance #NZD/USD #Kiwi #Bullish Bias #Us Session
After post-FOMC short squeeze and return to the mean, USD weakened today, especially in US session. The winner was again the Kiwi, which managed not only to retest Wednesday's highs but to also break above them. Strong resistance at 0.7600 - 0.7650 will have to be overcome next to confirm bullish bias.
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USD back to pre-FOMC levels

al_dcdemo Posted 19 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #USD #Euro #Us #Kiwi
Euro has reversed all yesterday's gains and it is the same story pretty much across the board. The winner appears to be Kiwi, which has given back only two thirds of the gains. Where to from here remains to be seen and will mostly depend on the data from the US.
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samme 19 Mar.

Yea after all the fuss now back to square one . Accounts wiped out just like the CHF

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al_dcdemo 20 Mar.

In hindsight it all seems logical :)

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NZD/USD to stay in range

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7520, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Kiwi #Bullish Bias #Rbnz #Neutral Bias #Sharp Correction
Monthly chart:
In January, the pair has busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 - 2014 trading range around 0.7350. It reversed in February and reclaimed all three levels, closing just above 100 month SMA. Support is now established at 0.7175 with more at 0.70 level and 50.0% retracement (of 2009 to 2011 uptrend) at 0.6868.
Weekly chart:
Having broken down from 0.7600 - 0.8050 range in January, the pair has retraced back up to the low of the broke…
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al_dcdemo 15 Mar.

UPDATE 2: Kiwi was the second best performing major currency this week, losing less than 30 pips against the Dollar. The reason for buying/covering was neutral RBNZ and its governor Wheeler, who said that the current level of NZD is appropriate. Even though it pared some gains on Friday, it still ended well above 50.0% retracement of the post-RBNZ rally. Where to from here is unclear, with range trading the most likely scenario.

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al_dcdemo 21 Mar.

UPDATE 3: Price action roughly matched that in other major pairs: range to start the week, post-FOMC spike on Wednesday, retest of the lows on Thursday, rally on Friday. However, the pair was the winner this week, as it was the only one that managed to break above post-FOMC high on Friday and it even closed above that. It stalled ahead of strong resistance: 100 DMA and December 2014 low near 0.76. The levels needs to be convincingly broken, if the pair is to remain bullish.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 4: The pair broke above 0.76 weekly resistance and 100 DMA on Monday. On Wednesday, however, it fell back below the resistance and on Friday back below the average. It closed the week below both strong levels, but the pullback appears to be weak. We will have to wait until next week to see whether this rally still has some legs or was it just another fake breakout.

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foreignexchange 1 Apr.

It could improve the accouracy. Great analysis

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al_dcdemo 1 Apr.

Thanks! With two hours to go, it's a bit far off, but still fairly close to target.

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NZD/USD technicals deteriorated

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Jan. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7009, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Monetary Policy #NZD/USD #Kiwi #Easing #Fake Breakout #Rbnz #Neutral #Technical Weakness
Monthly chart:
The pair has busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of 2009 to 2011 rally and the low of the 2011 - 2014 trading range around 0.7350. Besides strong technical breakout, RBNZ has just changed its stance from hawkish to neutral. Further losses are expected and 50.0% retracement (of 2009 to 2011 rally) at 0.6868 is the first strong support level ahead of 200 month SMA.
Weekly chart:
Having broken from 0.7600 - 0.8050 range, there is potential to at least 0.72 initially, then 0.70. O…
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al_dcdemo 8 Feb.

The pair closely followed Aussie on Tuesday in both directions and performed the reversal part in even stronger fashion. Although RBNZ dropped its hawkish bias and reaffirmed their view of overvalued currency, yields are still very attractive compared to other major currencies. There is shorter-term scope to retest the bottom of the Q4 2014 consolidation, which coincides with 61.8% retracement of the January 15 2015 to February 3 2015 decline.

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al_dcdemo 15 Feb.

In a bout of weaker Dollar, Kiwi benefited the most. The pattern was similar to that in other major pairs, sideways action in the first part of the week and then reversing sharply higher on Thursday. It closed the week just below prior week's high around 0.7450. This 0.7450 - 0.7500 resistance zone will need to be broken on a holding basis to signal that this is something more than just a normal pullback.

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al_dcdemo 22 Feb.

After it broke above 0.7450 - 0.7500 resistance zone early in the week, the pair has been confined to a less than 100 pip range for the rest of the week. It topped around 0.7570 on Wednesday after dovish FOMC Minutes. 50 DMA, 0.75 level and the bottom of the previous range at 0.7615 may provide enough supply for the pair if it wants to continue lower.

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