- Expectations of tapering will rise as labour market continues to show cumulative improvement
- Fed wants to be assured that any progress in labour market will be lasting
- Unemployment and and payrolls have clearly improved but other labour data has not
- FOMC decisions are dependant on data
- Forward guidance and asset buying separate tools but market sees them closely linked creating challenges for Fed
annatimone's Blog
Fed Bullard: Small taper would still leave very stimulative policy
ECB would do well to keep rates on hold.
ECB would do well to keep rates on hold. For now.
After yesterdays belated market focus on the underlying problems in managing a single strategy for the whole eurozone, it put into sharp focus the policy options facing the ECB. The west has had a ferocious and deadly enemy for the last 40 years, and it was called inflation. All the ammunition and strategy has been directed towards killing this enemy, and the threat has – for the while – gone away. While this battle has been raging however, a new…
After yesterdays belated market focus on the underlying problems in managing a single strategy for the whole eurozone, it put into sharp focus the policy options facing the ECB. The west has had a ferocious and deadly enemy for the last 40 years, and it was called inflation. All the ammunition and strategy has been directed towards killing this enemy, and the threat has – for the while – gone away. While this battle has been raging however, a new…
FT lectures Europe on deflation, says ECB should cut rates
The Financial Times is out with an editorial saying the European Central Bank should cut rates next week.
The ECB has done little to stop inflation undershooting its target of close to (but below) 2 per cent. A rate cut in May and a promise to keep monetary policy loose until growth returns was all Frankfurt had to offer. When the ECB’s governing council meets next week, it should immediately cut its policy rate from 0.5 to 0.25 per cent. A new round of cheap loans to the banks – perhaps linked …
The ECB has done little to stop inflation undershooting its target of close to (but below) 2 per cent. A rate cut in May and a promise to keep monetary policy loose until growth returns was all Frankfurt had to offer. When the ECB’s governing council meets next week, it should immediately cut its policy rate from 0.5 to 0.25 per cent. A new round of cheap loans to the banks – perhaps linked …
Dollar up to 98.50 as sterling and euro lose
Dollar yen got a bit nervy in the seconds leading up to the release, falling to 98.06 but then found it’s stride and has pooped up to 98.50, The euro popped to 1.3785 then dropped to 1.3728. Cable has fallen to 1.6025 but has held ahead of support at 1.6020.
Having done a quick text comparison from last months meeting there’s nothing of note between the texts so it’s business as usual. Nothing on the shutdown or Washington shenanigans and I think they may use this card at a later stage like next…
Having done a quick text comparison from last months meeting there’s nothing of note between the texts so it’s business as usual. Nothing on the shutdown or Washington shenanigans and I think they may use this card at a later stage like next…
Look for a jump in US unemployment on technicalities of
The BLS is out with a technical note regarding the upcoming non-farm payrolls report, due November 8.
This part on the household survey caught my eye:
Workers who indicate that they were not working during the entire survey reference week and expected to be recalled to their jobs should be classified in the household survey as unemployed, on temporary layoff. This would include furloughed federal employees as well as other affected workers. These workers are classified this way regardless of whe…
This part on the household survey caught my eye:
Workers who indicate that they were not working during the entire survey reference week and expected to be recalled to their jobs should be classified in the household survey as unemployed, on temporary layoff. This would include furloughed federal employees as well as other affected workers. These workers are classified this way regardless of whe…
Fed says it will await more evidence before QE taper
Highlights of the October 30, 2013 Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement:
- Fed funds rate held at 0-0.25%, as expected
- Monthly bond purchases remain at $85 billion/month, as expected
- No change to forward guidance on interest rates
- Fed says data since Sept meeting generally suggests economy continued to expand at a moderate pace
- Repeats that downside risks to the outlook have diminished on net since last Fall
US Economic Outlook for the Near Future.
Economy•
US economic growth will be modest in 4Q 2013 and show slight acceleration in 2014. Weak consumer spending will continue due to weak consumer income growth although housing recovery will support consumer confidence. Fiscal issues will remain a negative factor. Business fixed investment is vulnerable to economic uncertainty although corporate sector has healthy balance sheets.
Interest rates•
I expect yields to rise gradually as US economy improves slowly. Recent weak employment report m…
US economic growth will be modest in 4Q 2013 and show slight acceleration in 2014. Weak consumer spending will continue due to weak consumer income growth although housing recovery will support consumer confidence. Fiscal issues will remain a negative factor. Business fixed investment is vulnerable to economic uncertainty although corporate sector has healthy balance sheets.
Interest rates•
I expect yields to rise gradually as US economy improves slowly. Recent weak employment report m…
India is facing the battle of inflation v growth.
It's worth taking a look back at India, and the progress under the new(ish) Governor.
It is reassuring to note that the pressure on the currency noted back in early September has abated, with the record lows seen then, reversed by some 10%. The rebound exhibited there has also been reflected by a similar rise over the same time frame in the Sensex. Governor Rajan was only appointed on 4 September this year, so he can look back on his first 2 months as very satisfactory – but greater challenges l…
It is reassuring to note that the pressure on the currency noted back in early September has abated, with the record lows seen then, reversed by some 10%. The rebound exhibited there has also been reflected by a similar rise over the same time frame in the Sensex. Governor Rajan was only appointed on 4 September this year, so he can look back on his first 2 months as very satisfactory – but greater challenges l…
Will Doctor Yellen prescribe a dose of inflation for the
The noises being made about a possible increases to QE are rising. A New YorkTimes story over the weekend adds further evidence that some are calling for more.
They note that the topic of discussion at the Fed may start to focus on inflation and whether more QE should be done to boost inflation up, to give the economy the boost it’s lacking.Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff says that inflation needs to be embraced and that the Fed is being too meek. He wants inflation pushed up to 6% for a few ye…
They note that the topic of discussion at the Fed may start to focus on inflation and whether more QE should be done to boost inflation up, to give the economy the boost it’s lacking.Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff says that inflation needs to be embraced and that the Fed is being too meek. He wants inflation pushed up to 6% for a few ye…
S&P Yellen nomination a near to intermediate positive
Standard & Poor’s give two reasons that Janet Yellen’s nomination as Chairman of the Federal Reserve is a near-to-intermediate term positive:
- Yellen’s nomination provides markets with a sense of continuity of the Fed’s current monetary policy decision-making and communications process