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Headline of FOMC Meeting Minutes 16 Aug 2017

FOMC meeting minutes
  • Official saw inflation pick up over next couple of years.
  • Several said inflation risk could be to the downside
  • Many saw sub 2% inflation for longer than expected.
  • Many expected B/S to only modestly tighten policy
  • Many Fed officials swa weak inflation due to idiosyncratic factors
  • Some officials concerned by weak inflation, argue for patience
  • Fed split on assessment if inflation expectations well anchored
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A few headline points crossing via Bloomberg on PIMCO's 'baseline views' for next year

  • China growth of 6%-6.5%
  • Expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates 2 or 3 times
  • UK growth 0.75%-1.5%
  • Eurozone growth 1%-1.5%
  • Expecting $1.5t in US fiscal stimulus over 10 yrs
  • Expect central banks maintain their stimulus
  • Yuan depreciates about 7% next 12 months
  • Global real GDP growth 2.5 to 3%
  • Secular new normal/new neutral theme remains intact
  • Japan inflation significantly below 2% target
  • Japan GDP growth 0.75%-1.25%
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