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Dollar Up & Down – What Now?

JonSnow Posted 22 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #EUR\USD #GBP\USD
Strange price action in the last 24 hours: first the dollar was up, then down but eventually closing the day with gains. Recent price action has a lot to do with equity markets which are getting spooked by the possibility of a faster than previously thought rise in interest rates in the US. Yields are also going up like there’s no tomorrow, hitting multi-year highs. The FOMC Minutes induced storm has past – what now?
I think now back to the “normal” trading, which means that dollar will keep mo…
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Dollar Up in Quiet Trading

JonSnow Posted 20 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #PLN #EUR\USD #GBP\USD
The US dollar is a bit up in a quiet and uneventful trading in the last 24 hours. USD\JPY went as high as 106.75 at the beginning of Asian trading session, and both euro and the pound have given some ground to the greenback.
I’m waiting for the volatility to pick up when London opens and hopefully we’ll some some spikes up on EUR\USD and GBP\USD charts – high enough to fill my orders. At this point in the contest I’m trying to be extra carefully, as I can probably get one of the top position wi…
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Next Week Trading Ideas

JonSnow Posted 16 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #GBP #EUR\USD #USD\JPY #USD/AUD #Fmoc Minutes
My trading ideas for the next week are not that different to what I was trying to do last week.
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I would like to buy USD\JPY at 124.00 with a target at this year top around 125.80.
I still have plenty of appetite to sell GBP. UK CPI data this coming Tuesday will be disappointing so the only question is: can I get a short position at 1.5680-90 band or it will be just above the last week closing price around 1.5650-60. Shorting GBP\AUD should also be a profitable trade because I expect another …
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My Euro & Pound Positions

JonSnow Posted 12 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #EUR\USD #GBP\USD
Since the beginning of this month's Trader Contest I've been trading mostly GBP\USD and EUR\USD and going nowhere with them. I still believe that GBP is due for a big fall but the question is when this is going to happen. Euro is clearly trading against its major trend, so each time it goes up I try to get on with a short position which later gets hits a SL or brakes even. I guess I should have traded euro long from the start but it's so hard to take such decision, given the fact that it has a h…
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Next Week Trading Plan

JonSnow Posted 9 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #EUR\USD #GBP\USD
Well, this is not a complete plan but rather ideas which I will try to implement depending what the market does early next week.
EUR\USD:
I would like to sell the pair at 1.1050-84 with a stop loss at 1.1150. I just don't see any conditions that would let euro rise above SP levels. The take profit level will be ether 1.0850-20 or if there is a violent, sudden move down perhaps even 1.0707
GBP\USD:
I really, really want to get short on this at 1.5550 but I have some doubts if it can go up as …
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Market Bored with Greek Drama

JonSnow Posted 17 July  in #Trader's blog #EUR\USD
Market is showing more signs that it cares lass about developments regarding Greek deal. German parliament vote today barely moved EUR\USD just like an increase of ELA and comments that came from ECB yesterday.
What has moved the market in the last two days were statements of BoE that the rate hike is getting closer as well as Fed's comments that most committee's members feel, it will be appropriate to rise rates at some point this year.
Today, EUR\USD recovery was capped at 1.0900 and from th…
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My USD Long Positions

JonSnow Posted 7 July  in #Trader's blog #EUR\USD
My short EUR\USD just was just closed with a profit of 142 pips @ 1.0922. I do think that it might go 1.0880 later today, but on the other hand any good news coming from Brussels or ECB might send the pair back up to 1.1029 or even higher, so it's just too risky for me. I will take another position ether later today or after FOMC minutes release tomorrow evening.
I'm also thinking about closing my short GBP\USD at current levels. The trade is about 140 pips in the positive territory and I think…
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Traders' Sentiment

JonSnow Posted 5 July  in #Trader's blog #EUR\USD #AUD\USD #USD\cfh
Sentiment Insights of Dukascopy Trader Community:
I found these sentiment insights to be very interesting especially that to some extent the market is in a very unchartered territories (yes, I mean Greek referendum)
EUR\USD
Among both live and demo clients the split is more less 50\50 So, half of us think it will go up and the other half that it's going down. That's just like pre-referendum polls.
AUD\USD
Interestingly, among demo traders nearly all are long, where among live traders most ar…
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My Worst Trading Day

JonSnow Posted 9 June  in #Trader's blog #Trader Contest #EUR\USD
Yesterday I lost all my gains I got so far in this month's contest and I'm basically back to square one with just a little above the starting capital. I was long on the US dollar in a few trades and I got hit rally hard with EUR\USD - lost 131 pips. I just didn't believe that euro can go above 1.1300 after fantastic NFP data on Friday.
Someone smart said:
"The market will always go further than you think"
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2 Comments
WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 9 June

It's always painful to learn about SL the hard way!

csan86 avatar
csan86 9 June

Good luck for the next few weeks!

JonSnow avatar
JonSnow 9 June

Yes, it was painful. But in the market conditions where the pair moves 200+ a day 130pip SL was not unreasonable.

speculo_ergo_sum avatar
speculo_ergo_sum 20 June

NFP data fantastic only on surface -- the headline numbers are good, but at closer look the data is not so rosy

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EUR\USD to Retest 1.0820 Support

JonSnow Posted 7 June  in #Trader's blog #Trader Contest #EUR\USD
I really don't see the common currency appreciating much further in the days ahead. We'll probably see 1.1180 on Monday but eventually it will drop to 1.10 and even 1.0820 to retest this key support.
The NFP was outstanding and put September rate hike back on the table. Both sides of Greek debt negotiations are loosing patience with each other and expressing their frustrations in a stronger language. German bond market was supporting euro last week but that won't last forever. Thus, any further…
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1 Comments
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WallStreet6 7 June

agree!

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