Community
Blog
al_dcdemo's Blog

al_dcdemo's Blog

Avatar

Kiwi bounces off of a strong support near 0.70

al_dcdemo Posted 22 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Confluence #NZD/USD #D1 Chart #High Yielder
Kiwi dollar took advantage of yesterday's U.S. dollar weakness and bounced smartly after it broke below a confluence of October low, 2015 - 2016 trendline, 200 DMA and 0.70 level. The currency is a top G10 high-yielder and should stay in favour even as U.S. dollar yields gradually rise.
The current pullback may find some resistance at the late October lows (0.71) and then near 50 and 100 DMA (0.72). Area between 0.70 and 0.6880 (00's, 38.2% retracement, 50 WMA, 100 WMA, H2 2015 highs) will come …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

Leave a comment
orto leave comments
Avatar

Kiwi to continue trending up

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Oct. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7325, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #Confluence #NZD/USD #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Balanced Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA and recently also above 100 week SMA whil…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

9 Comments
View 4 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 10 Nov.

UPDATE 5: The RBNZ cut the official cash rate to a record low of 1.75% from 2.00% yesterday. Governor Wheeler said that it was likely the last rate cut in this cycle but that they stand ready to intervene in the currency market at any time. Kiwi was initially bought but reversed soon thereafter on intervention talk, aligning with the current U.S. dollar trade. The pair broke below 50 and 100 DMA today and is currently recovering from a sub 0.72 dip. Sellers may be waiting closer to 0.7250.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 6: In the second week after the U.S. election, the U.S. dollar rose against all G10 major currencies bar the Canadian dollar, which tends to perform well on the crosses in the strong U.S. dollar environment. The yen was the weakest of the bunch with the antipodean dollars not very far behind. U.S. dollar index blasted through 100 and closed the week on thirteen-year highs. If current market assumptions (big fiscal stimulus, further tightening by the Fed) prove to be correct, this could well have been the start of the second leg of the multi-year U.S. dollar move.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 Nov.

UPDATE 7: New Zealand dollar was the least volatile currency during the U.S. election day. Part of it was likely due to the fact that the RBNZ held a meeting on the next day. Widely expected rate cut didn't exactly matter as the currency joined others in a sell-off. The pair has so far lost about 400 pips and closed lower in eight consecutive days. It closed last week below the 2015 - 2016 trendline and 200 DMA, which may now act as a resistance. Area between 0.6880 and 0.70 (00's, 38.2% retracement, 50 WMA, 100 WMA) should see some demand.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Kiwi dollar took advantage of yesterday's U.S. dollar weakness and bounced smartly after it broke below a confluence of October low, 2015 - 2016 trendline, 200 DMA and 0.70 level. The currency is a top G10 high-yielder and should stay in favour even as U.S. dollar yields gradually rise. The current pullback may find some resistance at the late October lows (0.71) and then near 50 and 100 DMA (0.72). Area between 0.70 and 0.6880 (00's, 38.2% retracement, 50 WMA, 100 WMA, H2 2015 highs) will come into focus, should the downtrend reassert itself.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar appreciated against most of the G8 major currencies in the three weeks after the U.S. election. An exception is the pound which has been completely disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade and remained range-bound. Australian and New Zealand dollars, supported by yield advantage and the former also by rising copper prices, started their corrections a bit earlier. Low-yielders, the euro, the franc and the yen, recouped some of the losses on Friday and earlier today, but the U.S. dollar bulls were quick to buy into the dips. Price action suggests a risk-on week ahead.

orto leave comments
Avatar

AUD/USD may surge towards 0.80 in September

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7825, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Confluence #High Yield #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Brexit #Net Long Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
January - April rally topped out near the confluence of 38.2% retracement of 2014 - 2016 downswing, 2011 - 2016 support/resistance line and 100 wee…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

9 Comments
View 4 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 10 Sep.

UPDATE 5: The U.S. dollar made an impressive comeback on Friday. It ended the day higher in every G7 major currency pair. On the week, the dollar closed higher against the Cable, the Loonie and the Aussie. The rally was widely attributed to hawkish comments from a dovish Fed president Eric Rosengren, which hit markets as N.A. session got underway. The comments spooked markets, risk assets in particular, many of which closed near the lows of the day. All this makes a speech from also dovish Fed governor Lael Brainard on Monday even more important.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead will be among the most important ones this year. Even though the market discounts little chance of a Fed hike in September, the meeting will shape expectations for whether we'll get one this year at all. Perhaps even more important will be the decision from the BOJ. This bank has been struggling with deflation and upward pressure on the yen for decades - can they finally put end to that? RBNZ is another central bank that meets this week. No action from them is widely expected, after they cut rates in August.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 7: FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at yesterday's meeting. The outcome was widely anticipated though there were still a lot of players expecting an early hike.  It was a "hawkish hold" with the committee sending a strong implicit signal that the second hike is not far away, barring any economic shocks. The dollar fell after the decision and extended its losses in today's European session. It then recouped a hefty part of the losses in the N.A. session which is consistent with a very real prospect of a rate hike in December.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies ended the first day of the week mixed but mostly higher against the dollar. The winner was the yen which approached the strong 100 level once again. A convincing break below it could send few ripples through the FX market, particularly via crosses such as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Canadian dollar was the loser of the day, following through on the weakness after Friday's inflation and retail sales reports. Market focus is now turning to the U.S. elections. It's also the last week of the quarter so we may well witness some larger position squaring flows.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar ended the month higher against the pound and the Canadian dollar but it closed lower against the euro, the franc, the yen and the antipodean dollars. It was a great month for range traders while trend followers are still waiting for a real breakout (higher TFs). They may not have to wait for too long. Contracting ranges will sooner or later give way, in one or the other direction. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. presidental election and potential for a December FOMC rate hike should keep the dollar supported in the fourth quarter.

orto leave comments
Avatar

AUD/USD to consolidate in August

al_dcdemo Posted 27 July as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7475, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Confluence #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Brexit #Net Long Positioning #Bearish Fundamentals
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
January - April rally topped out near the confluence of 38.2% retracement of 2014 - 2016 downswing, 2011 - 2016 support/resistance line and 100 wee…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

10 Comments
View 5 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Another quiet weekly opening as thin summer trading continues. The seven major currency pairs traded in 20-30 pip ranges during the Asian session. Data wise, there's a busy week ahead. U.S. will release inflation report and FOMC meeting minutes. U.K. will report inflation, labour market and retail sales data. Australia and New Zealand will publish labour force reports. We'll get the latest readings on Canadian inflation and retail sales. All this points to a little bit more action than implied by the opening.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 17 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Many participants positioned for the U.S. dollar strength ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, encouraged by yesterday's hawkish comments by the NY Fed president Dudley. The minutes were less hawkish than expected in that only a few members felt that a rate hike was needed. Majority would like to see some more data before taking that decision. The dollar made its customary round-trip, running stops on both extremes, before returning to pre-release levels. The commodity currencies ended the day lower while the rest of the G7 closed near unchanged for the day.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 22 Aug.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar opened the week with a significant gap in its favour. Weekend comments by the Fed's Stanley Fischer were cited as a contributing factor though it all looks like a simple continuation of the last Friday's reversal. The calendar for the week ahead is relatively light with the main event, a speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen, coming in at the end of the week. At the moment it seems we'll get a bit of a dollar strength ahead of the event as the market discounts rising (albeit still low) odds of a rate hike by the Fed later this year.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Aug.

UPDATE 9: Last Friday's speech by Fed Chair Yellen seems to have, at least temporarily, reversed the U.S. dollar weakening trend. Major currencies have been impacted to various degrees. BOJ's Kuroda comments over the weekend about further room for monetary policy easing made the yen the weakest of the currencies followed by the Canadian and the Australian dollars. Cable seems to be the most resilient and is down just marginally on the week, in part probably due to a lack of new sellers as implied by record net and gross short positions in FX futures.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Sep.

UPDATE 10: Aussie spiked about 20 pips on the release of much weaker than expected retail sales and capex reports. The decline was quickly bought into and the pair is holding firmly above 0.75 which was briefly pierced in yesterday's trading. The big figure is reinforced by 100 DMA with the next stronger support coming in between late July low (~0.7425) and 200 DMA (~0.7380). Some resistance may be encountered at 50 DMA (~0.7560) and then near May - August trendline (~0.7585).

orto leave comments
Avatar

Brexit likely to weigh on AUD/USD too

al_dcdemo Posted 25 June as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7225, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Confluence #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Brexit #Bearish Fundamentals
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
January - April rally topped out near the confluence of 38.2% retracement of 2014 - 2016 downswing, 2011 - 2016 support/resistance line and 100 wee…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

8 Comments
View 3 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 11 July

UPDATE 4: June's NFP report suggested that the figure for May was just a fluke and that the U.S. jobs market is still strong. Having said that, its performance graduated somewhat over the past year which is in line with diminishing slack in the market. Immediate reaction was to buy the dollar but, after few whipsaws, prices mostly settled near pre-release levels, with a slight risk-on bias. Talking about risk-on, S&P 500 futures posted an all time high overnight, barely two weeks after Brexit.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 12 July

UPDATE 5: The path of least resistance is to the upside for the Australian dollar, which looks supported above 0.75. Some weakness in gold and oil is offset by better risk sentiment across the globe. Next target for the pair is 100 MMA (0.77) and then 2011 - 2016 support/resistance line (0.7750). The mentioned 0.75 level is backed by 100 DMA (0.7460), 50 DMA (0.7375) and 200 DMA (0.73).

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 20 July

UPDATE 6: Aussie lost about 85 pips yesterday with a daily range of 115 pips. Most losses came in Asian session after the release of dovish monetary policy meeting minutes. Australian inflation report next week will be a big one and will likely determine whether the RBA will cut cash rate in August. The decline stalled near 0.75, reinforced by 100 DMA just below. A convincing break of the support could send the pair to 0.74 (50 DMA) and then 0.73 (June lows, 200 DMA). 0.7550 may now act as a resistance.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 July

UPDATE 7: One could argue that the FOMC missed a perfect window to hike the federal funds rate. Brexit disruption proved to be minuscule, labour market bounced, inflation expectations recovered, data improved recently and stocks are trading at or near all time highs. Advance GDP came in much weaker than expected on Friday but will likely be revised towards 2.5% in the following two revisions. It seems that "gradually and cautiously" means one 0.25% hike per year at the most. That means no hike in September with December a much more probable date.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 8: Currencies staged an impressive reversal against the U.S. dollar last week after a combo of dovish Fed and much weaker than expected Advance GDP reading. The yen was the biggest beneficiary as it gained about 400 pips on the week, helped by a lack of stimulus actions from the BOJ. Commodity currencies rallied with the New Zealand dollar a star performer and the Canadian dollar a bit of a laggard. The euro and the franc also rallied strongly with the pound quite behind but still well in the green. Price action points to further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

orto leave comments
Avatar

AUD/USD to remain offered in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 21 May as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7125, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Confluence #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Sharp Sell Off #Bearish Fundamentals
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
January - April rally topped out near the confluence of 38.2% retracement of 2014 - 2016 downswing, 2011 - 2016 support/resistance line and 100 week…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

8 Comments
View 3 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 4: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report might have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see a reaction of the European traders to the aforementioned report.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 5: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did oil while gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 14 June

UPDATE 6: Australian dollar's range for this week has been barely over 50 pips with the main action in other currencies. Nevertheless, narrow ranges are almost always followed with a breakout to the either side and FOMC meeting on Wednesday or Aussie labour force report on Thursday could be the catalysts. The pair is trading near the trendline drawn off of 2001 and 2008 lows and just below 100 DMA. 50 DMA, approaching from above, is the next resistance. Stronger support is about 100 pips below and comprises of 2015 support/resistance line and 200 DMA.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 7: In yesterday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not entirely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will likely be felt for weeks, if not months.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 June

UPDATE 8: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made a new low before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the E.U. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

orto leave comments
Avatar

Loonie turns around

al_dcdemo Updated 9 May  in #Trader's blog #USD/CAD #Reversal #Confluence #D1 Chart #Wildfires #Sell Zone
After the U.S. dollar reversal last week, Canadian dollar has been one of the currencies that have been hit the hardest. Raging wildfires in Alberta have definitely contributed to the rise in USD/CAD as oil prices remain supported.
The pair added more than five cents since Tuesday and is currently trading just below a confluence of the April 18th high, 50 DMA and 1.30 big figure level. 1.30 - 1.3065 (2008 - 2009 highs) seems like a decent sell zone but with current momentum the pair may just sli…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

Leave a comment
orto leave comments
Avatar

AUD/USD to keep pushing the upside

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7775, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Confluence #Gains #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Risk Positive
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair convincingly broke above the confluence of the 2015 support-resistance line, broken long-term trendline drawn off of 2001 and 2008 lows and…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

9 Comments
View 4 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 6 May

UPDATE 5: The impact of the U.S. jobs and wages report for April was rather small this time around. This could be to some extent due to lower participation in this holiday-heavy week but I think the main reason is that U.S. data doesn't seem to play the biggest role in the Fed's policy at the moment. Due to status of the U.S dollar as the number one reserve currency in the world, the Fed is in many ways a global central bank and must act accordingly. The bank is in no hurry with rate hikes and I think they'll stay sidelined at least until September.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 6: Last few days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a hefty part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a couple of weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 7: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a big surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. Loonie, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance near 1.30. Cable on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 8: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were decent for a Monday however and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23rd).

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 May

UPDATE 9: Aussie jumped about 60 pips overnight, after the release of much better than expected Building Approvals report. This kind of impact is rare for such an event but the market has been waiting for an excuse to start buying into the pair in what seems to be an oversold condition. The buying stalled just ahead of 200 DMA (0.7250) which remains an immediate resistance. Above that comes 2015 support/resistance line (0.7275) and then 100 DMA (0.7350). 0.7150 - 0.7200 may now hold as a support.

orto leave comments
Avatar

AUD/USD to extend gains in April

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7625, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Confluence #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Risk Positive #Pullback Mode
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair convincingly broke above the confluence of the 2015 support-resistance line, broken long-term trendline drawn off of 2001 and 2008 lows an…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

10 Comments
View 5 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 13 Apr.

UPDATE 6: While commodity currencies already had a great few days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some of the position adjustments - particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 7: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as most commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for the positive developments but the main driver seems to be the recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive currency pairs.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 8: With the exceptions of the pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead will feature Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation report and multiple central bank speakers.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Apr.

UPDATE 9: Aussie tumbled overnight after much weaker than expected quarterly inflation report which, among other things, showed Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) falling below RBA's target band of 2.0% - 3.0%. Expectations for a rate cut by the bank next week surged. The pair lost 150+ pips since the release and seems to be making a short-term bottom ahead of 23.6% retracement of the January - April rally. 50 DMA is the next stronger support level and then 0.7450 - 0.75 band. 0.7650 - 0.77 likely becomes a sell zone now.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Apr.

UPDATE 10: I was expecting a dip towards 0.7250 during the forecast period but 0.75 held as traders continued to pile into the Australian dollar amid the recovery in commodities and the U.S. dollar weakness. I was right, however, on the pair testing 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 downswing. The big level held and the pair fell to close the month 20.2 pips away from my target at 0.7625.

orto leave comments
Avatar

USD/CAD to pull back before continuation higher

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3925, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Confluence #New High #Uptrend #Pullback #Strong Rally #Major Levels #Upside Potential
Monthly chart
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke above 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair pulled back deep enough to clear stops below 1.20. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement wasn't even properly retested before the pair resumed the uptrend, touching 1.40 level in December.
Weekly chart
Since revisiting 1.20 level …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

9 Comments
View 4 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Loonie appears to have been the quietest of the bunch as its overnight range was barely more than 30 pips.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 12 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Loonie continues to trend up strongly and has broken to a new high in five out of six completed trading days this year. Yesterday, it reversed from the dip and proceeded to break July 2003 high, making it to the highs not seen for thirteen years. 76.4% retracement of the 2002 to 2007 decline is the next target, reinforced by the big figure level at 1.45 and backed by the March 2003 low (~1.4580). Pullbacks have been shallow but, in case of a deeper correction, area around 1.35 (September 2015 high) may be the first candidate for support.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Contrary to what many expected, BOC held the overnight rate at 0.50%. Canadian dollar weakened a lot in anticipation of their move and was bought heavily after the decision. The pair (USD/CAD) was marked down immediately but it turned around swiftly and retested pre-meeting range in anticipation of a dovish press conference. That never came and the pair continued lower, leaving a big reversal candle on the daily chart.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 9: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

orto leave comments
More