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USD/CAD to test 1.3750 in January

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Dec. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3625, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Wedge #Daily Chart #Bullish Bias #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Dovish Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal is followed by a wedge-like upward sloping consolidation formation. The for…
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al_dcdemo 16 Jan.

UPDATE 5: Major currency pairs opened with gaps. U.S. dollar generally opened higher, up 10 to 35 pips. The exception is the yen, which gapped about 10 pips higher, in a risk-off fashion. The outlier is the pound which opened 180 pips lower after the prospect of a hard Brexit came again to the fore over the weekend. It's a calendar-heavy week ahead, which features central bank meetings from the ECB and the BOC plus speeches from Carney, May and Yellen and other Fed officials. We'll see whether the U.S. dollar correction will continue or the bullish trend will reassert itself.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar generally moved lower against the major currencies this week. The exceptions were the yen, which was sold on rising U.S. bond yields, and the Canadian dollar which went down on BOC Poloz's remark that a rate cut remains on the table. The best performer was the pound, which rallied after May's soothing rhetoric on what was previously viewed as a "hard" Brexit. Donald Trump officially became the 45th president of the United States on Friday. The first of his actions will be the market's focus in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Sentiment from the last week continues as U.S. dollar starts the week on the back foot. What started as a normal pullback appears to be morphing into a medium-term correction. Three rate hikes this year, as some Fed officials have been touting, seem a bit far-fetched. I'm thinking two at the most which may be closer to what majority of market participants expect. Losses against the yen and the pound are the most pronounced today but the dollar has started to claim back some ground it had lost during the Asian session.

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al_dcdemo 28 Jan.

UPDATE 8: It was a lacklustre week for the dollar but the corrective momentum appears to have run out of steam, particularly against the euro, the franc and the yen. Commodity currencies generally performed better but the Australian dollar is finding it diffucult to sustain gains above 0.75. The pound broke 100 DMA for the first time since the Brexit vote. Next week will be a big one with three central bank meetings (Fed, BOJ, BOE) and plenty of U.S. data, including Nonfarm Payrolls. Trump's actions will remain closely watched.

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al_dcdemo 30 Jan.

UPDATE 9: U.S. president Donald Trump issued an executive order on immigration late on Friday (early Saturday in Europe). The order led to some chaos in airports in the United States and overseas, and prompted protests and legal action. The dollar gapped lower at the open and continued to trade south in the first part of the Asian session. The impact was most visible in the risk sensitive yen while the antipodean dollars were barely moved due to Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. The pound rose about 60 pips but stalled ahead of the big figure at 1.26.

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Loonie to trade mostly sideways into year-end

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Nov. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3475, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Wedge #Daily Chart #Bullish Bias #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Dovish Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
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al_dcdemo 12 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Over the weekend, OPEC and non-OPEC countries reached a deal to cut oil production. On top of that, Saudi Arabia showed their commitment by declaring that they will cut more than what they agreed on last week. Oil prices opened sharply higher, WTI is currently up more than 5% on the day. Loonie gapped down at the open, extending the 450-pip fall since mid November. 2016 trendline near 1.31 is backed by 200 DMA. 1.3150 is the initial resistance.

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al_dcdemo 17 Dec.

UPDATE 6: The reaction after the Wednesday's FOMC decision was telling. The jump in bond yields and the surge in the dollar showed that the markets were priced for a more gradual tightening path than implied by the latest dot plot. Yellen's endorsement of the dot plot was another contributing factor. Even though it may seem that the dollar moved too far too fast, the rally looks very strong and I think we haven't seen the top yet. With this kind of momentum it is possible that the usual year-end thin holiday trading will mean more volatility rather than range-bound action.

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al_dcdemo 21 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Canadian dollar sold off strongly against the U.S. dollar after FOMC upgraded tightening path and Yellen used the word "gradual" only twice at the last week's press conference. Oil prices remain firm after OPEC and non-OPEC production cut deals. The pair sprang from the strong support zone (May - November trendline, 200 DMA, 2009 high) below 1.31 and almost completely retraced the decline from the first two weeks of the month in two days before stabilizing ahead of 1.3455 (Q3 2015 high). Looks bullish above 50 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Liquidity and volatility both fell ahead of the holidays. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the pound and commodity currencies, weakened against the yen, and remained unchanged against the euro and the franc. If the past week was of some example, the week ahead should be even more quiet. But I wouldn't bet on it because I think some of the recent moves have further to run and many will not be patient enough to wait for the New Year to get on board of them. Year-end position-squaring coupled with low liquidity will produce a couple of moves in any case.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Final week of the year was a pretty calm one if we exclude sharp spikes in euro and franc on Friday - already thin early Asian session liquidity was further diluted due to holidays and a large-sized order took out weaker hands. The dollar ended the week mostly lower, in part also due to bulls booking profit at year-end. Many countries are observing a holiday on January 2nd but I'm sure not everyone will wait until the 3rd to place their first trade. Market themes remain firmly in place and that could mean a volatile start to the new year.

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Loonie may extend towards 1.375 in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3475, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Wedge #Daily Chart #Bullish Bias #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Dovish Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal was followed by a wedge-like upward sloping consolidation formation. Up unti…
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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Loonie still trades on whips and whims of the oil market, although its correlation with that market is not at the level it was earlier this year. Oil price shock has probably been discounted while both markets are a bit tired of the endless production cut saga. The pair broke to the highest level since February on the U.S. election day. It briefly traded above 50.0% retracement of the year's decline before pulling back. Top of the seven-month wedge is the first stronger support with more at 50 DMA coming in from below.

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al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 7: In the second week after U.S. election, the U.S. dollar rose against all G10 major currencies bar the Canadian dollar, which tends to perform well on the crosses in the strong U.S. dollar environment. The yen was the weakest of the bunch with the antipodean dollars not very far behind. U.S. dollar index blasted through 100 and closed the week on thirteen-year highs. If current market assumptions (large fiscal stimulus, further tightening by the Fed) prove to be correct, this could well have been the start of the second leg of the multi-year U.S. dollar move.

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al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar appreciated against most of the G10 major currencies in the three weeks after the U.S. election. An exception is the pound which has been completely disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade and remained range-bound. Australian and New Zealand dollars, supported by yield advantage and the former also by rising copper prices, started their corrections a bit earlier. Low-yielders, the euro, the franc and the yen, recouped some of the losses on Friday and earlier today, but the U.S. dollar bulls were quick to buy into the dips. Price action suggests a risk-on week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Oil production cut/freeze saga continues and the OPEC meeting tomorrow is very much in the spotlight. There've been headlines supporting both scenarios but the market has leaned on the side that there will be some kind of agreement reached. The Canadian dollar was one of the best performers yesterday as it closed about 90 pips (0.67%) higher against the U.S. dollar. 1.3375 - 1.3575 is the range in play. The lower extreme is reinforced by the eight-month wedge top and the upper extreme by the 50.0% retracement of the 2016 decline.

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al_dcdemo 1 Dec.

UPDATE 10: OPEC decided to cut oil production by 1.2 mbpd to 32.5 mbpd yesterday. That was slightly less than what oil bulls may have hoped for but the fact that the cartel even reached an agreement is bullish in itself. We'll see whether non-OPEC will follow suit and whether the new quotas will be respected. The impact on the Canadian dollar was not as large as on the black gold. All in all, I'm pleased with the prediction which was fairly on target and also anticipated the expected price path quite accurately.

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Yen carry trade is back

al_dcdemo Posted 26 Oct. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 106.25, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Bullish Bias #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Net Long Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has lost more than 2000 pips this year, dropping below 50, 100 and 200 week SMA. The latter was convincingly broken after U.K. voted to lea…
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al_dcdemo 9 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Risk assets and the dollar sold off initially when it had became clearer and clearer that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. Traders were quick to buy the dip and the rally took off as the news was widely confirmed. I expected at least one more day of selling but the price action seems logical. Markets are inherently optimistic while Trump presidency really isn't such big a deal. What we saw was the Fed trade returning with force, in my opinion.

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al_dcdemo 15 Nov.

UPDATE 6: The dollar rallied 150 pips against the yen on Monday as traders scrambled to get on board of the latest move. Trump's proposed fiscal stimulus in form of tax cuts and infrastructure spending worth several $tn are leading markets to price in a steeper path of the federal funds rate. Japanese GDP came in better than expected. That supported the Nikkei and the pair. Now even more so, U.S. dollar based investors are paid to hedge yen exposure. Technically, 38.2% retracement of the 2015 - 2016 downswing at 109.25 is the next target and then the big 110 level.

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al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 7: In the second week after the U.S. presidental election, the U.S. dollar rose against all G10 major currencies bar the Canadian dollar, which tends to perform well on the crosses in the strong U.S. dollar environment. The yen was the weakest of the bunch with the antipodean dollars not very far behind. U.S. dollar index blasted through 100 and closed the week on thirteen-year highs. If current market assumptions (big fiscal stimulus, further tightening by the Fed) prove to be correct, this could well have been the start of the second leg of the multi-year U.S. dollar move.

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al_dcdemo 24 Nov.

UPDATE 8: USD/JPY rose 200 pips yesterday in the first four hours of N.A. trading. (Core) Durable Goods Orders report was better than expected while Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales missed expectations but still came in solid. Later, FOMC Meeting Minutes confirmed broad support for a December hike. The pair blasted through 50.0% retracement of the 2015 - 2016 decline and was already consolidating above the level when the Minutes were released. 115 - 116 area (includes 2015 low and 61.8% retracement) is the next target. 109 - 110 should contain a deeper pullback.

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al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar appreciated against most of the G10 major currencies in the three weeks after the U.S. election. An exception is the pound which has been completely disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade and remained range-bound. Australian and New Zealand dollars, supported by yield advantage and the former also by rising copper prices, started their corrections a bit earlier. Low-yielders, the euro, the franc and the yen, recouped some of the losses on Friday and earlier today, but the U.S. dollar bulls were quick to buy into the dips. Price action suggests a risk-on week ahead.

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Loonie to remain supported above 1.30

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3125, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Bullish Bias #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Blow Off Top #Net Long Positioning #Dovish Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Loonie started the year with a sharp rally and topped out near 76.4% retracement of the 2002 - 2007 downtrend. The reversal was even more impressive…
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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 5: Minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place in September showed nothing that we haven't already known. Perhaps the most important takeaway is that the federal funds rate is going up, barring an economic shock. The committee members more or less agree on the need to raise the rate, it is the timing that is still being considered. The U.S. dollar broadly strengthened after the release but there's some profit taking noted today. A part of the reason may well be much weaker than expected  Chinese export data that could be taken as a sign of slowing global growth.

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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar mostly extended its fourth quarter gains against G7 major currencies this week. The exceptions were the Canadian and the Australian dollars while the New Zealand dollar was pulled down by expectations of further easing by the RBNZ. Worries about global growth after much weaker than expected Chinese export data were diluted today by the first positive PPI figure in five years from the #2 economy which could be a sign of better times ahead. The gradual tightening from the Fed that we're seeing should keep risk assets supported.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: Major currencies finished the week mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro moved lower after Draghi dispelled speculation of an early tapering of the ECB QE programme. The franc followed suit. The yen ended the week in the middle of its two-week range. The pound closed marginally higher on short covering. The Canadian dollar tested 1.30 on pretty hawkish statement only to reverse sharply on Poloz's revelation that they considered a rate cut. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain supported by carry traders, though the former sold off after weak labour force data.

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al_dcdemo 28 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Advance version of the U.S. GDP for the third quarter came in at 2.9% (vs. 2.5% expected and 1.4% previous). The dollar jumped after the release but the gains were quickly reversed. Selling has just been intensified after the news came out that FBI reopened Hillary Clinton investigation. European currencies and the yen are benefiting the most but those are also the currencies that fell the most in the past couple of weeks. Looks more like a position squaring ahead of the next week which will feature BOJ, Fed and BOE meetings.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Sharp moves on Friday afternoon were followed by a relatively calm opening on Monday. Currencies have been mostly unwinding those moves in the first twelve hours of trading. U.S. dollar rose against most of the major currencies with Canadian and Australian dollars two notable exceptions. Holidays in some countries over the next few days shouldn't have a great deal of influence on already low participation that we've been witnessing lately. If past summer is of any guide, otherwise "slow" months can be quite volatile if there's enough substance to drive price moves.

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Cable gains the most in one day since early December

al_dcdemo Updated 27 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #Bullish Bias #Risk On #H1 Chart
With a 100 pip up day, a daily range of almost 200 pips and the close near the high, Cable confirmed bullish bias that has been prevailing since the middle of the last week. China stocks tumbling aren't that important anymore with yuan stability and oil recovery supporting the risk-on mood.
Last Friday's high was briefly violated before bulls took a pause. 1.4350 - 1.4375 is a strong level that includes highs from last week and lows from a week before. 1.44 shall see some resistance too ahead of…
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NZD/USD to remain bid into new year

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6775, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Bullish Bias #Pullback #Downtrend #Hawkish Fed #Take Off #Dovish Rbnz #Risk Off Spike #Sma Cross
Monthly chart
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA and 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 by the end of August. It stalled in September and pulled back sharply in October. The pullback is the longest since the downtrend …
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al_dcdemo 9 Jan.

UPDATE 4: U.S. labour market report for December came out much stronger than expected as implied by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which was released on Wednesday. Knee-jerk was to buy the dollar but moves were quick to reverse in lower yielding currencies. A classical risk-off mode that will likely continue well into next week and perhaps beyond it, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Kiwi opened with a small gap up but promplty lost 50 pips to 0.6510 before it then turned back up again and surged towards 0.6550. It went sideways from there.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 19 Jan.

UPDATE 7: China released its GDP, industrial production and retail sales data overnight. All three data points slightly missed their respective estimates, which was not entirely unexpected. The numbers were not as bad as feared though and, after a brief sell-off, risk trades rebounded. Having fallen 450 pips since the beginning of the year, Kiwi is poised to close in the green for the second consecutive day and post only the third green day this year. 0.64 looks like a short-term bottom now that the pair has bounced towards 100 DMA (~0.6580) and 50 DMA (~0.6640).

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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EUR/USD set for another leg higher

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1125, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Downtrend #Channel Line #Dip Buyers #Sideways Market #Upward Sloping Channel #Long Term Trendline
Monthly chart
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stalled near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the long term trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 we…
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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Euro broke above the descending trendline drawn off of mid and late December highs (~1.0935) and previous week high (~1.0945) but stalled and reversed ahead of Daily Resistance 1 (~1.1970). It has pulled back almost all the way to the big figure (1.09).

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al_dcdemo 13 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Stabilization in the yuan and some better data from China have been enough to underpin risk sentiment that has been improving since the beginning of the week. That weighed on the euro, which lost about 50 pips against the dollar overnight. The pair is holding above 50 DMA and a cluster of support levels near 1.08. Late U.S. session highs (1.0850 - 1.0870) shall now contain upticks, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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al_dcdemo 26 Jan.

UPDATE 9: Euro refused to follow through after last week's post-ECB action. Draghi's words certainly were a tune to bears' ears but he definitely lost some credibility after the bank failed to meet market expectations in December. But the main thing that has been holding the pair afloat has been a sell-off in risk assets. The pair closed above 50 DMA yesterday but that may not mean a lot since it is still contained in 1.08 - 1.10 range. The top of the range is reinforced by the 2014 - 2015 trendline and 100 DMA.

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NZD/USD poised to gain in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6775, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Bullish Bias #Pullback #Downtrend #Hawkish Fed #Sharp Spike #Take Off #Dovish Rbnz
Monthly chart
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA and 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 by the end of August. It stalled in September and then pulled back sharply in October.
Weekly chart
From late April to early July…
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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 5: ANZ Business Confidence and GDT Price Index are the only high impact events from New Zealand on the calendar for the week ahead. U.S. macroeconomic data includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report, plus a testimony from Fed's Yellen. Technically, 50 DMA crossed above 100 DMA few days ago while 0.65 remains the most important level to keep an eye on.

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al_dcdemo 1 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Kiwi continued yesterday's strength and broke above last week's range and 0.66 level that capped it on several occasions in the past three weeks. Better data from Australia and China overnight didn't do it any harm. The pair is effectively back above 50 DMA which is a part of a strong resistance (now support) zone between 0.6590 and 0.6610. Interim target is 0.6750 on the way to 0.70, ahead of which we have 200 DMA (currently ~0.6920) and a declining trendline drawn off of 2014 and 2015 highs (currently ~0.6930).

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al_dcdemo 28 Dec.

UPDATE 7: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. There's nothing on the calendar from New Zealand while Chinese Manufacturing PMI will most likely produce little to no impact. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: The pair needed approximately a month and a half to rise 450 pips, from a low (~0.6430) set in mid November to a high (~0.6880) set two days ago. It so far produced three daily closes above the declining trendline drawn off of 2014 and 2015 highs. October high (~0.69) looks quite achievable and a stop run to 0.70 in the first week of the new year seems like a decent possibility.

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The Yen bid into NFP

al_dcdemo Updated 6 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #USD/JPY #Bullish Bias #50 Dma #200 Dma #H1 Chart
Since it broke above 50 DMA in October 22th, the Yen has been behaving bulllishly. It rose in every day of this week so far, convincingly breaking above 200 DMA. However, weekly range has been relatively small (~170 pips) as the pair has been slowly grinding up towards 122 resistance.
Action following tomorrow's NFP report could well see that level break, if we'll finally get a decent one. Weekly gains could also be easily erased with the price pulling back towards 120.50, should there be a cont…
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3 Comments
fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 6 Nov.

popped! 123 now

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 8 Nov.

Really didn't expect that kind of strength in the NFP report!

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 8 Nov.

Very few did :) overshoot the forecast by 50%

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